On paper there should only be one team in it tonight. Otago: nine Super 14 players in its run-on side, one of the big five unions, and quarterfinalist and semifinalist in the past two years.
Bay of Plenty: three Super 14 players in its run-on side, union in deep financial strife, and second bottom of the competition last year.
But facts and statistics come on paper.
The game is played on grass, and Otago has a tough match on its hands tonight at Mt Maunganui.
The Otago side has struggled to score tries and put sides away, and another loss tonight will put a serious hole in its finals plans.
It has been guilty of rushing things and failing to make the most of opportunities.
Otago's game has not been aided by a slowness at the breakdown, and it will need to be more willing in the ruck and maul tonight if it is to make any impact.
Centre Brett Mather is out because of a finger injury, with Daniel Bowden coming in at second five-eighth, pushing Aaron Bancroft out to centre.
Lucky Mulipola starts on the wing in place of Karne Hesketh.
The inclusion of Bowden may bring more enterprise into the backline but will also lessen its physical presence, with none of the backline in the heavyweight division.
Otago has been struggling to put players into space in its previous games, and will be hoping Bowden and Bancroft can find gaps in the Bay of Plenty backline.
Otago assistant coach Bruce Carvell was positive about the the inclusion of Bowden, and said the move will also give Bancroft more space.
Carvell said the side, if anything, had been trying too hard when opportunities came about, and this had been talked about at training this week.
"I think everyone wants to get involved and it starts to get a bit cluttered. But we have been working on that and we have to be a bit more calmer, a bit more direct," Carvell said.
"We have to be ready to react to what is in front of us.
"If the outsides see there is a mismatch or they have the numbers then they have to react quickly to it, and call it to those on the inside."
Carvell said the team had been following a pattern but should not stick blindly to that pattern, and if needed the side should look to attack if the opportunity presented itself, no matter what part of the field it was situated.
Bay of Plenty came a cropper last Saturday against Wellington, with the Lions winning 48-12, but before that had won its first four games.
The loss saw it slip to third - Otago is in sixth place - and coach Kevin Schuler said the side was benefiting from not having any stars.
"That creates a team of unity. We have no real superstars, no-one that the team totally relies on.
"We have prepared that way the whole season."
Schuler said the side was targeting wins over Super 14 base unions, as it showed his side they could match it with the "big boys" and hope the public would get behind it.
Bay of Plenty has a special motivation to win tonight, with halfback Jamie Nutbrown, one of its Super 14 players, playing his last game for the province before taking up a contract in Wales.
"We want to put on a special farewell for Jamie. He's a real worker in our side."
No 8 Colin Bourke, who has been in the wilderness for a couple of years, and had a forgettable season for the Highlanders in 2005, has burst back into life this season.
Schuler admitted he is a unique player, who did not get involved in as many rucks as other No 8s, but he had abilities in the backline and created chances.
Bay of Plenty fullback Zar Lawrence is in doubt with a knee injury and a decision will be made on his fitness today.
• Hawkes Bay had to come from behind to beat Taranaki 18-14 in Napier last night as the teams kicked off the second half of the Air NZ Cup season, NZPA reported.
Trailing by 14 points after 20 minutes, the Magpies scored 18 unanswered points 20 minutes either side of half-time to claim their third win in a row and consolidate their position in the top four of the competition.
Despite the bonus point for finishing within seven points of Hawkes Bay, Taranaki remains outside the top eight on the table.
