The Air New Zealand Cup is nearing the play-offs but may also be heading for the courts. Rugby writer Steve Hepburn looks at the planned cull of four teams from the competition and discovers the national union is not winning a popularity contest.
Rugby is said to be a simple game but nothing could be further from the truth.
A 150-page rule book, a sport evolving from fiercely amateur to blatantly professional in a few short years and now the saga of changing the Air New Zealand Cup all attest to that.
The New Zealand Rugby Union has decided - mainly for financial reasons - the competition has to be reduced from 14 to 10 teams.
But now, barely six months since the decision was made, teams facing the chop - most are pointing to Northland, Counties-Manukau, Tasman and Manawatu - say the goal posts have moved and a legal challenge looks likely.
Manawatu Rugby Union chief executive John Knowles said he doubted his union would take on its national body in court, but that would not stop everyone.
"Someone will have a crack. It could be anybody from a sponsor to a supporter. We haven't talked about doing it here, but someone will," Knowles said.
Provincial unions signed an agreement in April which included a condition that no union could mount a legal challenge should the NZRU decide to change the competition.
But Knowles said Manawatu and other unions had little option but to sign the document as their future in the 2009 competition was in doubt if they did not.
"We were reluctant to sign it, but there was that fear if we didn't, we wouldn't get a team in this year."
The competition is in its fourth year of having 14 teams, and Knowles said it had taken that long for finances to be worked through and budgets fine-tuned.
"For next year, if we stay in the top division and have the same sponsorship levels then we will be $300,000 in the black. We've done that through laying off staff, cutting costs to the bone, cutting everything right back."
The days of huge support staff and teams staying in motels the night before a home game have gone.
"In 2005, when they decided to go with 14 teams, the NZRU put in a lot of requirements which cost all unions money, and a lot of money . . . then on the back of that we have been through an economic recession."
Knowles said the unions outside the Super 14 bases had now worked out their financial standing, and were adjusting their budgets accordingly.
If Manawatu was demoted to the new division one, sponsorship would drop with no television coverage and there was no way the union could break even.
Northland chairman Andrew Golightly said the uncertainty over the new first division was proving hard for future planning.
There was to be a six-team "first division" involving the four demoted teams and two teams from the Heartland Championship.
"It all seems the decisions have been rushed a bit. We thought the changes would not be until 2011 and that is why we contracted a lot of our players through to the endof next year."
Golightly confirmed his union had cut costs and player expenses over the past 18 months.
All unions had to be solvent and most should be able to meet that test, he said.
If anything, the decision to chop the four teams has helped rekindle interest in rugby in many provinces.
In the main cities, where unions are relatively safe, crowds are down.
But people in areas such as Manawatu have gained a bit of provincial pride with the threat of their team being chopped.
Knowles agreed there was renewed interest in the Manawatu side this year, partly because the team was playing well, and players were all from the local area.
Northland was also gaining plenty of support and player numbers had ballooned to 7000.
Counties-Manukau chief executive Phil McConnell said it seemed smaller unions had found their level but the bigger unions were struggling.
Canterbury is set to post a loss this year, while Wellington's profitability is down and Otago has had money woes.
Counties-Manukau is bottom of the Air New Zealand Cup, but McConnell said the competition was a lot more even, and that was leading to increased support.
"Last week against Canterbury with five minutes to go, we were only four points behind. People are turning up to games not knowing who is going to win."
The Pukekohe-based union had spent $2 million on lighting, but that would be money wasted if it was demoted.
McConnell said the union should break even this year, and he doubted the culling of teams would happen easily.
"I do not think the public will allow it to go quietly. This is not being driven by the unions at the moment. It is coming from the public."
Air NZ Cup: The cull
MOST AT RISK
Tasman
Pros: Playing well this year, part of Crusaders franchise.
Cons: Has been an uneasy marriage between Nelson Bays and Marlborough, finances grim, propped up by NZRU last year, got the axe last year, only to survive.
Counties-Manukau
Pros: In a breeding ground for rugby players, legacy of producing great players.
Cons: No money, poor stadium, average playing record, too close to Auckland.
Manawatu
Pros: Playing well this year despite record, renewed crowd interest.
Cons: Finances in poor shape, finished near bottom in past years.
Northland
Pros: Getting new ground, some star players.
Cons: No money, not many players, got the axe last year, only to survive.
NEXT ON THE BLOCK
Southland
Pros: Doing well this year, good history.
Cons: Small population base and playing pool, may be reliant on too few financial backers.
Bay of Plenty
Pros: Performing well this year, strong population base.
Cons: Poor financial performance in past years.
North Harbour
Pros: Good stadium, plenty of corporate backers, large playing numbers, big population.
Cons: Poor playing record, low crowds, money in short supply.
Taranaki
Pros: Good playing record, heartland of rugby.
Cons: Isolated area.
CAN'T REST ON LAURELS
Otago
Pros: Relatively good playing history, getting new stadium.
Cons: Poor record in past few years, finances have been poor, low crowds.
Hawkes Bay
Pros: Impressive run since returning to competition, good crowds, producing players.
Cons: Rumoured to have spent too much.
SAFE AS HOUSES
Waikato, Wellington, Canterbury and Auckland
