Otago can still make the Air New Zealand Cup quarterfinals - but then again they reckoned the Titanic could not sink.
Otago sits on 11th place with one round to go and there is a log jam in the middle of the table.
Otago has 17 points and directly ahead of it are Tasman (18), Northland (18), Waikato (20), Taranaki (21), and Auckland (22).
The fifth placed team, Southland, on 25 points, is out of reach for Otago, with the Stags assured of a place in the quarterfinals.
The first thing Otago needs to do is win its game against Wellington, which in itself is no easy task.
Wellington is unbeaten, top of the table, and will be wanting to atone for a disappointing performance against Tasman last Saturday, when it nearly lost the Ranfurly Shield.
If Otago wins on Saturday night at Carisbrook, and Northland, Tasman and Waikato all lose without scoring a bonus point, the blue and golds will end up on 21 points and qualify eighth.
But if Waikato beats Taranaki, which looks likely as it has four All Blacks back, is playing at home, and is returning to form, Otago will have to get ahead of Taranaki to qualify, so will need to score a bonus point.
Tasman is playing Manawatu, a side at the bottom of the competition, although this match is at Palmerston North.
Northland faces Auckland at Eden Park on Sunday afternoon.
If teams are tied then the winner is decided on the winner of the game played between the unions.
If there are three teams on the same number of points and no clear winner can be found, points differential would come into the equation.
Otago is struggling in the for and against column, with a negative return of 39 points.
Otago may well run out on the field on Saturday night knowing its destiny, as Tasman, Waikato, and Taranaki will have all played beforehand.
