It is a sobering thought. Perhaps sobering is not the right word; terrifying, more like, for Otago supporters.
But if Otago again finishes 10th next year - like it has in the past two seasons - it will be relegated.
Down in the new first division, or whatever it is called, with the likes of Counties-Manukau, Northland and even Wanganui or Mid Canterbury.
But that should not be allowed to happen, and hopefully for rugby in Otago it does not.
How to stop that descent is the big question, and there are many parts to the answer.
A new coach should bring a new freshness, rattle a few cages and get rid of any cobwebs.
Steve Martin is an Otago man through and through.
But for the last couple of years it has not happened for him.
Maybe Martin was too soft on the players and failed to fire them up. He is a student of the game but in a competition like the Air New Zealand Cup, much comes down to attitude and desire.
Perhaps the players needed a dictator, a person who stood up to them, demanding a better performance or flogging them at training the next week.
David Latta is the prime candidate for the job and he will bring some good old southern values to the position: honesty, fronting up week after week, and wanting to die for the cause.
But does that work in the modern game?The Generation Y players of today will not want to hear calls about honesty and hardness right after the game.
They are too busy tucking into the healthy sandwiches and chicken, and putting on the sounds on the stereo.
Latta may or may not be a good coach, it's players that make coaches.
Get some good ones and you're a great coach.
Otago's results might have been poor over the last two years but the side has the spine of a decent team.
The front row is reasonable, there are two good locks and the loosies are better than average on their day.
The backline probably needs a playmaker and a class midfielder, but in Ben Smith the side has a genuine gamebreaker at the back.
Winger Fetu'u Vainikolo also has to rediscover some form but it would be hoped at 24 years of age he can still do that.
For Otago to succeed it needs to make the simple things look effortless.
The straight forward passes going to hand, the kicks going where they intended, the covering tackles being made.
Though it is painful to say so, that is what makes Canterbury and the Crusaders good.
They just do the basics well, and with a minimum of fuss.
In a competition like the Air New Zealand Cup, where there is no dominant team, sides which do the fundamentals better than the opponent win.
The one thing about Otago is it now has to look within.
And the union does know that.
Its recruiting is now focused on developing players from within the region.
It knows the supply of All Blacks from the University of Otago is not what it was.
It needs players with a huge desire to win for Otago, week in, week out.
That is why Otago should give Michael Hobbs a one-way ticket out of the South.
Hobbs wants to play for the Highlanders but is undecided on whether he wants to play for Otago or stay with Wellington.
Well, Hobbs should be told it is Otago or nothing.
Wanting to play for the blue and gold jersey should be the first requisite for players running on to Carisbrook.
Desire, plus accuracy and consistency on the field, should help ease Otago out of relegation worries next season.
