If history is the judge, North Otago's chances of beating Mid Canterbury and securing the Hanan Shield in Ashburton this afternoon are remote.
The showgrounds have not been kind to North Otago, which has not beaten Mid Canterbury in a shield challenge in Ashburton since the 1953 side, led by the late Stan Mosely, won 11-8.
Over the last decade, North Otago has recorded two wins as the shield holder in Ashburton, but Mid Canterbury has won the last five matches played between the two sides.
North Otago leads pool B of the Heartland Championship after two big wins, and a win this afternoon would just about ensure a place in the Meads Cup playoffs.
North Otago coaches Barry Matthews and Shane Carter have stuck with most of the team that beat East Coast (116-3) and Buller (40-22).
Peter van der Merwe comes in at tighthead prop to replace the injured Palenapa Mafi, whose shoulder could be right for the game against Poverty Bay in Oamaru next week.
Greg Zampach, who strained a groin muscle in Ruatoria, returns to the right wing in place of Kasanova Soane and, in an effort to bolster bulk in the forwards, Dylan Winter and Rangi Hepi join the bench. Prop Will Henry is out with a knee injury.
Scrummaging and the flatness of the backs on attack was a concern against Buller, but Matthews believes the coaches have made the necessary changes.
"We had a good scrum session with Glenn Moore and Carts [Carter] on Tuesday night and it was going pretty well by the end of training," Matthews said.
"The boys are reasonably confident we can go up there and give them quite a fright. Obviously, if we want to make the Meads Cup we've got to win one of our next three games."
Mid Canterbury heads into the game knowing it must win two of its last three games if it is to qualify for the Meads Cup.
In the first round, Mid Canterbury picked up a bonus point in its 25-20 loss to Poverty Bay, while last week the side showed a bit of character to come from behind to beat Wairarapa-Bush 30-17.
The Mid Canterbury side features plenty of newcomers. Prop Tim Perry is a son of former All Black Grant Perry, Vesi Luatua will lock the scrum and Stuart Adams and Nick McKain are two new flankers.
But the experience is still there in the Mid Canterbury pack.
Hooker James Carr will play his 71st game today, while captain Jason Rickard will play his 33rd game.
Lock Dan Dwyer, who missed the 2009 season, returns and will bring up his half century this afternoon, while No 8 Pete McAndrew will play his 40th game.
NORTH OTAGO v MID CANTY
Ashburton, today, 2.30pm
North Otago: Billy Guyton, Greg Zampach, Faaitu Tuamoheloa, Luke Herden (captain), Sione Pangata, Ben Patston, Kilifi Fangupo, Tevita Fifita, Ryan Long, Josh Collier, Dave Simpson, Eric Duff, Peter van de Merwe, Stu Philpott, Ralph Darling.
Reserves: Gerard Sweeney, Dylan Winter, Rangi Hepi, Aisake Fonua, Hamish McKenzie, Kasanova Soane, Ofa Fatafehi.
Mid Canterbury: Matt Ryan, Pete Shearer, Vinnie Booiman, Chris Crichton, David Maw, Chris Lock, Peter McAndrew, Nick McKain, Stuart Adams, Dan Dwyer, Vesi Luatua, Jason Rickard (captain), James Carr, Tim Perry.
Reserves: James McLeod, Scott Carnochan, Kody Nordquist, Siaola Fifita, Manase Nonu, Hayden Dwyer.
- Terry O'Neill
