The only way is up. After a 10-day lay-off, Otago takes the field tomorrow afternoon against Hawkes Bay knowing a win of any form or description is an absolute must.
Everyone knows the story of the Otago season so far: played five, lost five, and rock bottom of the ITM Cup.
The side does not need to look at what has happened beforehand.
It now must simply eliminate the mistakes and get in the winning column tomorrow.
Otago coach Phil Mooney has mostly stuck with the side which lost to Taranaki on August 26, the only changes being in the forward pack.
Hooker Liam Coltman is over his bruised shoulder and comes back into the side in place of Peter Mirrielees.
Captain Alando Soakai has recovered from a minor back strain and returns to the team, with Paul Grant dropping out.
Brad Cameron moves on to the blindside flank with Adam Thomson back at No 8.
The backline remains intact and will have to be on its game to match a Hawkes Bay team which has also disappointed this year.
The Magpies finally had their first win last week, grinding out a victory over Manawatu, but it has so far been a season of discontent for a side that finished in the top four the past three years.
It is stating the very obvious, but neither side has fired all year, so tomorrow's game will be all about getting over some mental baggage and making the most of chances that come along.
Mooney said the side had made the most of the extra time off between games, having a couple of extra training sessions.
The major focus has been on the breakdown and getting players out of the road in the contact area, Mooney said.
"The boys are still in really good spirits and have been really working hard this week.
"We've had some good sessions and shortened it today [Friday], as I was happy with what we were doing."
Mooney said discipline was obviously a key to a good performance and eliminating errors.
"We have to work extremely hard when they have the ball and pressure them into making mistakes.
The thing about giving away penalties is that it usually comes about from having made a mistake and then trying to make up for it.
So the key there is to not make a mistake and discipline will be easier to maintain."
Certainly, making mistakes has been Otago's Achilles heel this year, and players just need to do the basics right tomorrow.
The passes need to go to hand, and ball security must be a priority.
Mooney acknowledged Hawkes Bay had a big pack and will be desperate.
Hawkes Bay are without a couple of key men.
Openside flanker Karl Lowe has not overcome a hamstring injury while halfback Chris Eaton gets a start ahead of Kahn Fotuali'i.
Fullback Israel Dagg is away on All Black duties.
Former Otago No 8 Grant Webb will start for Hawkes Bay at the back of the scrum.
Otago took to the ice this week, with a curling session to break up the training on the paddock.
Mooney said it was pretty obvious there were no Winter Olympians among the side, but it was a good sidetrack from the training paddock.
The Otago coach did not have to say it, and it is starting to sound like a broken record, but Otago desperately needs a win.
The chase for the top seven is in effect all over, so now it becomes about pride and just playing accurately.
Ben Smith stays at fullback and his ability must be used while wingers Joe Hill and Ryan Shortland do have the ability to beat defenders but need good ball to be able to do that.
Glenn Dickson showed some encouraging form last week against Taranaki and he needs to take another step up.
Lock Josh Townsend replaces Seko Kalou in the reserves and will make his Otago debut if he gets on the field.
Charlie O'Connell is also in the reserves along with Wyatt McKay as both Grant and Mirrielees drop out of the 22.
Placemakers Dunedin will hold a collection at the game for the Prostate Cancer Foundation.
Otago v Hawkes Bay
Carisbrook, tomorrow, 4.35pm
Referee: James McPhail (Canterbury)
TAB odds: Otago $1.80, Hawkes Bay $1.95
Otago: Ben Smith, Joe Hill, Josh Tatupu, Andrew Parata, Ryan Shortland, Glenn Dickson, Sean Romans, Adam Thomson, Alando Soakai (captain), Brad Cameron, Hayden Triggs, Hoani Matenga, Halani Aulika, Liam Coltman, Kees Meeuws.
Reserves: Wyatt McKay, Sam Hibbard, Josh Townsend, Charlie O'Connell, Johnny Legg, Hayden Parker, Chris Small.
Hawkes Bay: Mark Jackman, Gillies Kaka, Richard Buckman, Jason Shoemark (captain), Zac Guildford, Dan Kirkpatrick, Chris Eaton, Grant Webb, Trent Boswell-Wakefield, Mike Coman, Ross Kennedy, Bryn Evans, Anthony Perenise, Hika Elliot, Clint Newland.
Reserves: Eugene Smith, Josh Keys, Leighton Price, Michael Johnston, Kahn Fotuali'i, Ryan McLeod, Sinoti Sinoti.
