Rugby: Believe - Highlanders can make the playoffs

[commentcaption=Do you believe? Can the Highlanders make the playoffs?]Did you believe? Don't lie. If you thought the Highlanders would still be in playoff contention this late in the season, you were either deluded, drunk or called Jamie Joseph/Mackintosh.

They have made us believers.

They have taken an over-looked, under-rated bunch of hungry rugby players and turned them into winners.

If that was impressive, wouldn't making the playoffs for the first time in eight years be a miracle?It can be done. Here is how the season might play out for the Highlanders, who are seventh in the Super 15:

THIS WEEK

The Highlanders are on a week off. And thanks to the new rule awarding four points for the bye, there is no danger Joseph's men will slip backwards.

The only problem is the three teams immediately above the Highlanders (Waratahs, Sharks, Crusaders) are all favoured to win.

Possible Highlanders position: Seventh, 43 points.

ROUND 15

The Highlanders host the 13th-placed Lions at Carisbrook and must - and should - claim their ninth win of the season.

But scoring four tries has still been difficult for the Highlanders, so my prediction limits them to four points.

That takes them above the Waratahs, who will lose to the Sharks in Durban. And if the Reds beat the Crusaders in the big clash in Brisbane, the Highlanders will be breathing down Dan Carter's newly contracted neck.

Possible Highlanders position: Sixth, 47 points.

ROUND 16

Another Carisbrook game and another simple objective for the Highlanders: beat the Force and bank four points.

The big hope here is that the Waratahs slip to a second consecutive loss, to the Bulls in Pretoria, giving the Highlanders some breathing space.

Possible Highlanders position: Sixth, 51 points.

ROUND 17

This is shaping as the most important week of the Highlanders' season.

They are off to Sydney to play the Waratahs in a game that could make or break both sides' playoff aspirations.

We'll give it to the Highlanders because they're hungrier, and because the Waratahs are tired after the trip home from Africa.

The Highlanders are briefly up in fifth place but then the Sharks crush the Lions.

The round also features two big New Zealand derbies.

Expect the Chiefs to beat a Hurricanes team shaken by the announcement that week that Hosea Gear, Ma'a Nonu, Andrew Hore, Cory Jane AND Piri Weepu are heading south to join the Highlanders revolution.

And the Crusaders will scoot into third place with a surprisingly big win over the Blues.

Possible Highlanders position: Sixth, 55 points.

ROUND 18

Darn it. The final round offers a game at the Highlanders' and Otago field of nightmares: Eden Park.

The good news is the hard work has been done and the Highlanders don't slip out of playoff contention despite their loss.

Both the Waratahs (v Brumbies) and the Bulls (v Sharks) win but do not have enough points to crack the top six.

Possible Super 15 finish: Reds 72, Blues 68, Crusaders 62, Stormers 61, Sharks 59, Highlanders 55, Waratahs 52, Bulls 51, Cheetahs 44, Chiefs 40, Hurricanes 39, Force 31, Rebels 30, Brumbies 27, Lions 24.

PLAYOFFS

The new system has the Stormers, as the South African conference winner, ranked ahead of the Crusaders.

So the preliminary semifinals feature the Crusaders at home - possibly Carisbrook - to the Sharks, and the Highlanders having to face the long trip to play the Stormers.

The Crusaders smash the Sharks. And, in a repeat of the famous 1999 semifinal, the Highlanders beat the Stormers 33-18.

A week later, the Crusaders pop up to Eden Park and sneak past the Blues to qualify for the final. The Highlanders head straight to Brisbane from Cape Town and Ben Smith scores a hat trick in a dramatic win against the Reds.

And what does all that mean? The Crusaders host the Highlanders in the Super 15 final. At Carisbrook, with AMI Stadium still out of commission.

Just like 1999. But with a different result.

hayden.meikle@odt.co.nz

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