But Saturday’s 47-31 win over Tasman is a good reason not to write them off just yet.
They gave up three tries in eight minutes but fought back in a seesaw game to clinch five competition points in front of 1450 spectators at Forsyth Barr Stadium.
The Mako, beginning their storm week, left some of their best players at home but produced a spirited display.
They were previously unbeaten and led by 10 points midway through the second half thanks to a 21-point scoring spree.
But in coach Tom Donnelly’s 50th game, and with the season teetering, Otago responded.
"It wasn’t perfect, like they never are," Donnelly said.
"But what a fightback from this group. They’re really desperate to make the playoffs and they showed it with how they dug deep and got a result."
The bench made a huge impact and helped rescue the game, he added.
Replacement halfback Nathan Hastie flopped over from close range to set up a tense finish.
Then hard-working lock Will Stodart powered over to put his side in front.
Replacement prop Moana Takataka made an impact with his first act of the game.
He helped a dominant pack shunt Tasman off their scrum ball and win a penalty.
Cameron Millar kicked for touch and eventually Otago was awarded a penalty try, which sealed the win.
Lock Fabian Holland added a bonus try at the end.
"I think we might need some results to go our way, but [this win] keeps us alive in the competition," Donnelly said.
"I’m really proud of the way they’re working hard during the week and fighting for something that we’re really keen to be a part of."
Yesterday’s games made the picture a little clearer for Otago.
They are 10th, on 21 points, two points off the playoff placings.
They will need to beat 12th-placed Northland in Whangarei on Friday night, must rely on two teams out of Canterbury (home against Waikato), North Harbour (away to Southland) and Counties-Manukau (away to Manawatu) losing, and will also need Auckland to lose one of their remaining games (away to Tasman, home against Bay of Plenty).
Otago took a 14-10 lead into halftime against Tasman on Saturday.
They played enough rugby to lead by much more. But they were punished for a couple of mistakes.
Otago fullback Finn Hurley was both hero and villain.
He scored the opener after Millar sold a beautiful dummy and got an offload to the ever-present No15.
But Hurley also rushed up out of the defensive line searching for an intercept. He missed the target and that created the space for Jack Gray to score.
He also had a kick charged down by his opposite, and centre Nic Sauira crossed for a five-pointer.
Otago captain Christian Lio-Willie barged over in the 27th minute to get the home team back in front, though.
Hurley took centre stage in the opening minutes of the second half. He got a miracle ball to Hudson Creighton, who stepped back inside several defenders to score.
That miracle might have gone forward.
The Mako responded with their own miracle pass.
The offload from Cooper Grant to Gray was a tight call, too, but the winger sprinted away and got a nice pass to halfback Louie Chapman to score.
Tasman added another two quick tries. Gray produced a wonderful chase and flanker Johnny Lee crashed over.
Then debutant Maloni Kunawave scored in the corner from a nicely worked move from a lineout.
The game looked lost but Otago’s bench turned the match around.
In other results, Bay of Plenty crushed Northland 53-13, Hawke’s Bay edged Auckland 36-35, North Harbour roared back into the playoff hunt by thumping Canterbury 65-19, and Taranaki beat Manawatu 33-31 in a thriller.
NPC
The scores
Otago 47
Finn Hurley, Christian Lio-Willie, Hudson Creighton, Nathan Hastie, Will Stodart, Fabian Holland tries, penalty try; Cameron Millar 5 con
Tasman 31
Jack Gray, Nic Sauira, Louie Chapman, Johnny Lee, Maloni Kunawave tries; Cooper Grant 3 con
Halftime: Otago 14-10.
