The blue and golds lost to Southland 32-15 in Invercargill on Friday night in what was a forgettable performance by Otago.
Hawke’s Bay duly went out and had a big win over Wellington in Napier on Sunday and with a bonus point has moved two points ahead of Otago into top place.
Otago will definitely host a semifinal. It cannot be overtaken in second place in the Championship and will play its semifinal at Forsyth Barr Stadium.
Otago’s final game of the regular season is against Tasman at Forsyth Barr Staduim this Saturday.
It will be a tough match. Tasman had been travelling all right but was thumped 29-0 for Canterbury last Saturday.
Tasman may be second in the Premiership but it goes into the final games knowing nothing less than a win will guarantee it a place in the playoffs, so it will have plenty to play for.
Of the other Premiership sides, Waikato and Wellington probably have the easier games.
Waikato will travel to Whangarei to take on Northland on Saturday while Wellington hosts Manawatu, also on Saturday.
Bay of Plenty takes on North Harbour in a virtual knockout match on Sunday.
Canterbury had an impressive win against Tasman but that counts for nothing as it could still be relegated. It takes on Auckland which is the only side in the premiership which is certain to be in the playoffs. But a win and other results going its way could get the red and blacks into the playoffs.
Otago knows it will definitely finish second but will be looking for a win and then hope Hawke’s Bay stumbles against Taranaki in Inglewood.
The team which finishes top of the table gets hosting rights throughout the playoffs which is a real advantage.
Otago, though, will simply want to put on a better performance after its disappointing show against Southland last week. It made countless mistakes and failed to score a point in the second half.
Taranaki has little to play for in its match against Hawke’s Bay. It cannot catch Otago ahead of it so will either finish third of fourth.
With the win Southland has given itself a sniff of getting into the playoffs of the championship. It sits in fifth and takes on Counties-Manukau in Pukekohe on Friday night. If it can gain a win it could push into fourth and then hope Northland loses to Waikato.
Northland has lost its last four games after it got off to a fine start to the season.
The playoffs are due to be played on the weekend of November 20-21 and it will be the sixth year in a row Otago has made the playoffs.
But if it plays as badly as it did last week it will again be a wasted trip to the playoffs.