Consecutive losses to Auckland and Bay of Plenty has left Otago in a perilous position in the Odds Pool.
It is in fifth place with three wins from six games and 15 points.
A loss to Wellington (third, 19 points) in the capital tomorrow afternoon would be potentially ruinous.
Otago still has to play Waikato, Canterbury and Manawatu. Manawatu is infinitely beatable, but Canterbury and Waikato have been the form teams in the competition.
We took the long way around, but essentially it feels like Otago has entered must-win territory.
Teams have to finish in the top four of their respective pool to make it into what is effectively the quarterfinals.
Otago is on track for fifth or even sixth place unless it can turn its campaign around. A lowly finish like that would represent an utter failure given the calibre of players available to head coach Tom Donnelly — remember those 23 Super Rugby players?
Considering the enormity of the game it is a surprise to see a team selection which suggests Otago is unclear where some of its keys players are best suited.
One-game All Black Josh Ioane has oscillated between fullback and first five and is back in the No 10 jersey again this week.
Cameron Millar started in that position during the disappointing 33-27 loss to Bay of Plenty at Forsyth Barr Stadium on Sunday. He has retained a spot in the run-on side but switches to fullback. It will be his first start in the No 15 jersey at this level.
Sam Gilbert is the strongest fullback in the squad, but he keeps his place on the right wing, where he had a strong game last weekend.
Vilimoni Koroi, who has combined some promising moments on attack with some feeble defence, has also retained his spot on the other wing.
Had injured midfielder Ray Nu’u been available, Otago may have considered pushing Josh Timu out to the wing to strengthen the back three. Nu’u is out for a month, though.
Lock Josh Dickson has returned from All Blacks duty and will strengthen a lineout which faltered at the weekend. It has been one of the most reliable in the competition.
He will combined with Will Tucker, who has been solid.
Halfback Kemara Hauiti-Parapara returns to the starting side and prop Saula Ma’u replaces Jermaine Ainsley at tighthead.
The loose forward trio of Sean Withy, Christian Lio-Willie and the captain James Lentjes will be hoping to have more impact than they collectively managed against the Steamers.
Wellington is in storm week and is backing up from a 25-19 win against Tasman on Wednesday.
Valuable competition points are not all that is at stake — the teams will play for the Mike Gibson Memorial, which Otago currently holds.
NPC
Wellington, tomorrow, 2.05pm
Otago: Cameron Millar, Sam Gilbert, Josh Timu, Thomas Umaga-Jensen, Josh Ioane, Vilimoni Koroi, Kemara Hauiti-Parapara, Christian Lio-Willie, James Lentjes (captain), Sean Withy, Will Tucker, Josh Dickson, Saula Ma’u, Henry Bell, Abraham Pole. Reserves: Brady Robertson, Tau Kolomatangi, Josh Hohneck, Oliver Haig, Rupeni Tamani, James Arscott, Freedom Vahaakolo, Sam Fischli.
