Northern neighbours shape as contenders

Call it the resumption of normal service. There is no reconditioning plan to disrupt the New Zealand teams in the Super 14 and it seems highly likely the trophy could return to these shores as a result.

Last year all seems a bit of an unpleasant memory now. Graham Henry's grand plan to take the best players out of the competition did not help the All Blacks at the World Cup, alienated a large chunk of the support base and affected all five New Zealand franchises.

It also helped the Bulls and the Sharks secure home semifinals and places in the final, the beginning of a great year for South African rugby that would end in glory in Paris.

Two New Zealand sides, the perennially powerful Crusaders and Blues, made the semifinals, but the overwhelming impression of the year was of dissatisfaction.

On to 2008. All New Zealand teams are at full strength - even if most have been hit by post-World Cup departures - and it is reasonable to be optimistic there will be one of our teams holding up the trophy for a 10th time in 13 seasons in late May.

And yes, sad to say from Highlanders country, but is again our neighbours who look best placed to win it all.

First, the Crusaders have to deal with a storyline of soap opera proportions, with revered coach Robbie Deans guiding the side for one final season before, a week after the Super 14 finishes, he begins his tenure with the Wallabies.

It is an extraordinary, unprecedented situation and no-one quite knows how it is going to pan out.

It certainly appears as though it could create more problems for the New Zealand Rugby Union, which will be loath to let too many trade secrets accompany the coach across the ditch.

Deans is too smart to let his imminent duties with the Wallabies affect his drive to win a record seventh title.

The Crusaders have the record, the firepower and the experience to go all the way.

Like all teams, they have had big losses, with a trio of All Blacks (Aaron Mauger, Chris Jack and Rico Gear) winging their way overseas, but smart recruitment and development means those players will hardly be missed.

The Crusaders landed an extremely big fish in the offseason player market in the form of lock Ali Williams, who imploded with the Blues last year but showed at the World Cup why he is so valued.

Williams will join Brad Thorn, the veteran league star who is back in rugby circles, to form the heart of a forward pack that will also feature the brilliance of Richie McCaw, the under-rated explosiveness of Mose Tuiali'i and the reliable contributions of Reuben Thorne, Corey Flynn and Campbell Johnstone.

Mauger's loss will be felt but Stephen Brett, last year's rookie sensation, can easily move to second five outside Daniel Carter, and the experience of Leon MacDonald, Caleb Ralph and Scott Hamilton will help new backs Hamish Gard, Kade Poki and Sean Maitland get settled.

The Blues have suffered more losses than anyone, with Williams, fellow lock Greg Rawlinson, All Black backs Doug Howlett and Luke McAlister, halfbacks Steve Devine and Dave Gibson, Angus Macdonald and Sam Tuitupou the major ones.

Balancing that, Nick Evans is a great gain from the Highlanders and will guide a backline that is still loaded with firepower, including star wingers Joe Rokocoko and David Smith.

The forward pack is solid, highlighted by flanker Daniel Braid and front-rowers Keven Mealamu and Tony Woodcock, but there are question marks at lock, and little depth at prop and No 8.

The Hurricanes have one of the more settled line-ups in the competition and will be keen to bounce back from their average 2007 season.

An all-All Black loose trio of Jerry Collins, Rodney So'oialo and Chris Masoe will be the key to the pack, behind fit-again lock Jason Eaton and a front row led by hooker Andrew Hore that is probably the best the franchise has fielded.

At halfback, Piri Weepu will be eager to prove a point after his shock omission from the World Cup squad, and 19-yearold winger Zac Guildford will hope for an opportunity in a backline blessed with talents such as Cory Jane, Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith.

The enigma for the Hurricanes is Jimmy Gopperth, now the clear-cut first-choice first five. If he fires, there could be plenty to celebrate at the Cake Tin.

The Chiefs, who have made the semifinals only once in 12 years, have been wildly overrated as usual, but this could be a difficult year for them.

Halfback Byron Kelleher and loose forwards Steven Bates and Marty Holah are big losses, and apart from Sione Lauaki and Liam Messam, the forward pack looks steady rather than dominant.

Mils Muliaina, Sitiveni Sivivatu and Lelia Masaga will form an exciting back three, and centre Richard Kahui has the goods to make it to the top, but there is little midfield depth and immense pressure on halfback Brendon Leonard to prove he can be more than a cameo player.

What the Chiefs cannot afford is another of their typically slow starts to the season.

The Super 14 can throw up surprises but the safest bets have to be on the Crusaders making the final, the Hurricanes making the semifinals, the Blues just missing out and the Chiefs ending somewhere in mid-table.

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