How much will the opening loss to Southland end up costing Otago? A spot in the playoffs?
The competition for those last two or three playoff places is close. So close that Otago (10 points, 11th) are just two bonus points off eighth place.
There is a clear top three as Wellington (25 points) and Tasman (23) remain undefeated after five games each, and Hawke’s Bay (27) top the standings with five wins from six games.
Bay of Plenty (22) and Taranaki (20) look on track for the quarterfinals. But Waikato (17) and Canterbury (15) will need to keep checking the rear-vision mirror.
Counties-Manukau hold on to eighth place with 12 points from six games. North Harbour (11), Southland (10) and Otago are in striking distance. And will Auckland (7) make a run in their final five games?
Northland (7) have four games left and look too far back. They can play spoiler, though, as can Manawatu (2).
There are a lot of scenarios that could unfold but the cut-off last year was five wins.
If that is the benchmark again this season then Otago will need to win three of their five remaining games.
That means tonight’s clash with the Lions is more of a nice-to-win than a must-win.
The game against Counties-Manukau in Pukekohe on Sunday is critical.
It will count double in a way. Otago can pick up competition points while denying a competitor another step on the ladder.
It is storm week, so Otago have taken the opportunity to rest a few key players against Wellington and keep them fresh for the Counties-Manukau fixture.
Veteran hooker Liam Coltman gets to put his feet up and Saula Ma’u, Sam Fischli, Cameron Millar and Thomas Umaga-Jensen are on the bench.
Midfielder Sam Gilbert and lock Fabian Holland are on the injury list. Otago will be sweating on Holland’s return in time for the trip to Pukekohe. He is an important figure in the lineout and adds weight to the scrum.
But where they have excelled is on defence.
They have won 87.8% of their tackles and that tenacity has kept them in games.
The attack has not been functioning anywhere near as well. They have scored just 11 tries, which is fewer than any other side. Hawke’s Bay, by comparison, has 33 tries.
Otago are at the bottom of the list for clean breaks, metres gained and defenders beaten as well.
They do have an a easier finish to the competition than most.
The games against Counties-Manukau, Manawatu and Northland shape as winnable, while victory over Wellington and/or Tasman would see Otago breeze into the playoffs with some real momentum.
But they would be in a better position had they beaten Southland and were going into the second half of the campaign with a little more wriggle room.
NPC, Dunedin, 7.05pm
Otago: Finn Hurley, Waqa Nalaga, Hudson Creighton, Joe Cooke, Jona Nareki, Ajay Faleafaga, Nathan Hastie, Christian Lio-Willie (captain), Lucas Casey, Oliver Haig, Will Tucker, Ale Aho, Rohan Wingham, Henry Bell, Abraham Pole. Reserves: Heath MacEwan, Ben Lopas, Saula Ma’u, Sam Fischli, Will Stodart, Dylan Pledger, Cameron Millar, Thomas Umaga-Jensen.
Wellington: Stanley Solomon, Tom Maiava, Matt Proctor, Peter Umaga-Jensen (captain), Pepesana Patafilo, Callum Harkin, Nui Muriwai, Ben Tuiomanufili, Sione Halalilo, Dominic Ropeti, Akira Ieremia, Caleb Delany, Brad Crichton, Harry Press, Yota Kamimori. Reserves: Penieli Poasa, PJ Sheck, Siale Lauaki, Matolu Petaia, Jeremiah Avei-Collins, Kyle Preston, Sam Clarke, Riley Higgins.
OTAGO’S REMAINING GAMES
Tonight: v Wellington, Dunedin
Sept 15: v Counties-Manukau, Pukekohe
Sept 22: v Manawatu, Palmerston North
Sept 28: v Tasman, Dunedin
Oct 4: v Northland, Whangarei
