Six, six and eight.
Those represent the number of wins the sixth-placed Super Rugby Pacific team has ended with in the past three seasons.
The Waratahs were sixth with eight wins (38 points) in 2022, and held the same spot with just six wins (31 points) a year later.
Last year, the final season with an eight-team playoff system before being trimmed to six, the Highlanders owned sixth spot with six wins and 28 points.
Not a scientific formula, then, but a fair guess is a team needs to have about seven wins and about 33 points to be reasonably sure of a place in the top six.
The Highlanders, at present ninth after getting a right old hiding by the Chiefs on Saturday night, have three wins and 17 points.
Well spotted — they have quite a lot of work to do if they are to be playing in June, and they have a rather tough draw.
Let’s have a look at their remaining games and try some vague guesswork.
v CRUSADERS
Dunedin, Saturday night
Optimist: It is the South Island derby, and the Highlanders usually get right up for that. Sean Withy will be back, and hopefully Caleb Tangitau as well. The Crusaders might be second in the table but they are still a work in progress. And surely there enough awful things in the world without having to watch a bunch of Cantabrians win a rugby game. Be kind, rugby gods.
Pessimist: Look at the disparity in talent between the two teams. Sadly, the Crusaders could rest five of their All Blacks and still be warm favourites. And the Highlanders are really misfiring.
The tip: Crusaders win but Highlanders nab a bonus point.
v MOANA PASIFIKA
Dunedin, May 4
Optimist: The Highlanders are at home and are a (marginally) better team. While Ardie Savea inspired Moana to a furious comeback in this fixture at North Harbour Stadium, the Highlanders were otherwise untroubled in building a big lead. And Ardie cannot do it all.
Pessimist: Ardie can do it all. Moana need another win or two this season to really feel they are building momentum, and they will be targeting this game.
The tip: May the 4th be with the Highlanders. They turn on a show and win with a bonus point.
v HURRICANES
Wellington, May 16
Optimist: The Canes just aren’t that good. They were lucky to get out of Dunedin with a narrow win in round four. The Highlanders match up well with the men from the capital in several positions. It will be nearing 10 years since the Landers won their title in Wellington, too, so expect a rousing pre-game talk from Ben Smith and Nasi Manu.
Pessimist: The Hurricanes might be dropping too many points but they have class over the park, and will be desperate to win this to stay in the hunt. Ruben Love might act like a clown but he has talent to burn, and no doubt Can Roigard and Peter Lakai will have season-best performances.
The tip: Hurricanes to win by six points.
v CRUSADERS
Christchurch, May 23
Optimist: Remember that beautiful 2024 season when the Crusaders finished ninth? Good times.
Pessimist: This could be the game that seals first or second place for the Evil Empire. Not good times.
The tip: Evil triumphs over good by 15 points.
v CHIEFS
Dunedin, May 30
Optimist: The Chiefs could be clear in top spot, so we might see them rest some players or at least get a little complacent. The Highlanders will be wildly motivated to finish a mediocre season on a high note. Yes, the Chiefs are a vastly superior team, but they do not always shine at Forsyth Barr Stadium. Take out their 52-28 win here in 2023 and there have been four Highlanders wins, a draw, and two narrow Chiefs wins (three points and nine points) in this fixture since 2014.
Pessimist: The Chiefs are a vastly superior team.
The tip: Call me a fool, but I sense this could be a good night for the Highlanders. Echoing the 2008 season, when they ended the round-robin with a huge upset over the eventual champion Crusaders, the Landers will shock the Chiefs, who will go on to win the title.
My rough calculations have the Highlanders finishing eighth or ninth, perhaps tied with the Hurricanes on 28 points.
The Chiefs to finish top on 48 points, followed by the Crusaders (47), Brumbies (45), Reds (39), Waratahs (32), Force (31) and Blues (31), with the Fijian Drua (25) and Moana Pasifika (20) at the bottom.
