A glance at the forecast and the track rating this morning should give punters a guide for the Kelvin Tyler-trained runners in the $30,000 Amberley Cup at Riccarton later today.
The Riccarton track dropped to a heavy10 yesterday from a dead6 on Thursday morning after 9mm of rain.
Rain was not forecast again until today, but it is up to the strength of yesterday's sun whether the track will be able to dry enough to get back to a slow rating.
Tyler has both Lochan Ora and Keep The Courage engaged for the 1600m open handicap.
Keep The Courage has been an open-class contender before, but Lochan Ora has climbed rapidly through the grades, winning five of his last six starts.
"He probably doesn't need a really heavy track,'' Tyler said.
"A nice dead to slow track is good for him. It's his first time in open class, which could be a question mark, but he's certainly well.''
Lochan Ora has used handy draws and his speed out of the barriers to full effect through the grades, but will leave the machine at the 1600m from the outside draw today.
"It's quite a different scenario this time. He's normally drawn quite handy and gets a nice trail, so hopefully he slots in somewhere,'' he said.
"But his work has been good - he's just got better and better, actually.''
But the heavy track means Keep The Courage comes right into play for Tyler when comparing his two runners.
"There's probably not much between them. If it turns heavy, Keep the Courage will be a good chance. He loves it really heavy and deep and he's really well too.
"He's proven in the open grade where the other fella hasn't proven himself yet. [Lochan Ora] has had smaller fields on the way up, and even though he's been winning them well, it's going to be a step up for him.
"If it's heavy, I'd probably favour Keep The Courage and if it's a better track, maybe Lochan Ora.''
Tyler's other runner, Belle Boy (race 1), will carry 54.5kg after Kevin Kalychurun's 2kg claim in the rating 75 1800m. He takes on his rivals after winning his last two starts.
"He's just getting better and better and his work's been good too.''
Rising 9yr-old Toma Valea is in the form of his life and expectations of the sprinter are again understandably high as he chases consecutive Riccarton victories.
The gelding will step out in the 1200m open handicap after comfortably accounting for the well-performed King Montrose, a race rival again, earlier this month.
"He's going as well as ever and even though he's been up for a while, he just keeps training on,'' said co-trainer Michael Stokes.
"We thought the heavy track may have been an issue but he coped with it fine. It surprised us a bit because he hasn't handled them in the past.
"He's very well and he would have to be a good show again. He looks fantastic and he just keeps racing better and better.''
The only concern is Toma Valea's continued rise up the handicap, although apprentice Jacob Lowry's 2kg claim will help the cause.
- Additional reporting NZ Racing Desk
