Tuesday’s “race that stops the nation” will see 22 horses slug it out over a gruelling 3200m trip at Flemington, and with so many competitors it can make for a daunting prospect to decide which horses to back.
Here's a guide to the field and some insider tips. There's been a late scratching, with Lunar Flare failing a late fitness test, and Point Nepean withdrew yesterday after tests showed elevated blood results.
There are four Kiwi horses involved (Stockman, Young Werther, Daqiansweet Junior and Smokin’ Romans) and the race favourite by a fair margin is an Irish horse by the name of Deauville Legend.
'Oily liquid' poured on track
There are reports that a vandal broke into Flemington Racecourse and pumped an unknown, oily substance on the track hours before race day began.
The liquid was poured onto the surface at the 1500m mark. The damaged section, a reasonably low traffic area, was discovered before the first race.
Slippery or shifting patches of turf can be incredibly dangerous to horse and rider.
Racing Victoria stewards walked the affected area twice, following remedial work, and deemed the track safe.
“The track has been deemed safe for racing by RV Stewards with no impact on the conduct of today’s meeting,” RV reported.
Victoria Racing Club has referred the incident to police.
Wet conditions
One of the biggest talking points going into Tuesday’s great race is the weather in Melbourne, with a wet track almost certainly on the cards.
Showers, cold and even hail is set to lash Flemington.
“There will be enough rain in the lead-up to the cold outbreak to make the track at least soft, possibly heavy,” Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke says.
“Similarly, the grassy expanses of the Flemington lawn could tend to mud in patches and swallow up high heels.”
Note though, that it would take a lot for the race to be postponed, with visibility and lightning the only reasons the jockeys wouldn’t ride.
The rain at Flemington has sparked chaos with the bookies after the track was officially downgraded to a "Soft 7".
After days of Deauville Legend being the only horse in single-figure betting odds, a second rival has emerged.
Realm of Flowers is now listed at $9 with the TAB while Deauville Legend has drifted to $4 after starting the day at $3.50.
Other horses becoming more attractive to punters include: High Emocean and Knights Order.
Those drifting with the rain include: Young Werther, Camorra and Gold Trip.
Fancy a flutter? - The Field
1 - Gold Trip (Fr)
Draw - 14
Jockey - Mark Zahra
Weight - 57.5kg
Odds - $14
Form - 52x3x33529
6-year-old horse
Breeding Outstrip (GB) - Sarvana (Fr)
Trainers: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
A slashing Cup trial when just pipped in the Caulfield Cup, Gold Trip is a 5yo French import in the leviathan Ciaron Maher & David Eustace barn. Forget run in Cox Plate, where he had no luck, he is a very talented entire whose prospects will only improve if there is any rain in the air.
2 - Duais (Aus)
Draw - 10
Jockey - Hugh Bowman
Weight - 55.5
Odds - $26
Form - 96117×0688
5-year-old mare
Breeding Shamus Award (Aus) - Meerlust (Aus)
Trainer: Edward Cummings
An impressive winner in this year’s Australian Cup, and also a winner in the Tancred Stakes, Duais has taken time to recapture that form since resuming. The 5yo Australian-bred mare has lacked a kick in recent efforts against top company. Would need to improve.
3 - Knights Order (Ire)
Draw - 24
Jockey - Tim Clark
Weight - 55.5
Odds - $16
Form - x3521x1343
8-year-old gelding
Breeding So You Think (NZ)-Lamanka Lass (USA)
Trainers: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Ran 19th in last year’s Cup, but in much better form this year. A brilliant front runner who won the 3200m Sydney Cup with a dominant display, this tough as teak, Irish-bred gelding was collared late but fought back bravely for third against many of these in the Caulfield Cup last start. Big chance.
4 - Montefilia (Aus)
Draw - 11
Jockey - Jason Collett
Weight - 55.5
Odds - $10
Form - 4x718x434
5-year-old mare
Breeding Kermadec (NZ)-Bana Wu (GB)
Trainer: David Payne
NSW trained Australian-bred mare is a former Spring Champion Stakes champion and put in an eye catching Cup dress rehearsal when she stayed on well for fourth in the Caulfield Cup. Although she can handle a soft track, she struggled the previous start in very heavy going. Respect.
5 - Numerian (Ire)
Draw - 7
Jockey - Tommy Berry
Weight - 55.5
Odds - $51
Form - x60211x225
7-year-old gelding
Breeding Holy Roman Emperor (Ire) - Delicate
Charm (Ire) Trainer: Annabel Neasham
Didn’t lose too many fans with a close and dogged fifth in the Caulfield Cup, this Irish import is an on pace runner with no quit in his body. But he has never gone further than 2400m and whether he can foot it with the classy Europeans down the long Flemington straight is the big question.
6 - Without A Fight (Ire)
Draw - 18
Jockey - William Buick
Weight - 55.5
Odds - $11
Form - 11x20311x2
6-year-old gelding
Breeding Teofilo (Ire) - Khor Sheed (GB)
Trainers: Simon & Ed Crisford
English trained Irish bred stayer who rarely runs a bad race, winning seven races, including an impressive win in the Group 3 Silver Cup Stakes at York. Has overseas experience, having run second in Dubai, and runs best when on pace, or leading. Very tough and up for a fight. One for the combinations.
7 - Camorra (Ire)
Draw - 17
Jockey - Ben Melham
Weight - 55
Odds - $41
Form - 3217x551x8
6-year-old gelding horse mare
Breeding Zoffany (Ire) - Mauralakana (Fr)
Trainers: Ben & JD Hayes
Irish bred and trained, Camorra earned his spot with a dour staying run to win in the Curragh Cup on a good surface over 2800m in June. He did not appear to handle heavier ground on the same course in the Irish St Leger in September, when he was well beaten. One for better odds on a fine day.
8 - Deauville Legend (Ire)
Draw - 9
Jockey - Kerrin McEvoy
Weight - 55
Odds - $3.50
Form - 4x2x12121x
4-year-old gelding
Breeding Sea The Stars (Ire) - Soho Rose (Ire)
Trainer: James Ferguson
Rising staying star, who has been perfectly prepared for this by emerging English trainer James Ferguson, who prepares horses to race in Australia. Has, genuine speed to add to his staying credentials where he was a leading light in an above-average 3YO crop and will be one of favourites.
9 - Stockman (NZ)
Draw - 2
Jockey - Sam Clipperton
Weight - 54
Odds - $26
Form - 0127×96441
6-year-old gelding
Breeding Tavistock (NZ) - Crimson (NZ)
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Kiwi-bred Stockman is in solid form and had a strong win last start at Randwick over 2600m. Started favourite in the Sydney Cup over this distance but could not stay with the pace set by Knights Order, who is likely to do the same in this race. The pace, and the distance, are big questions to answer.
10 - Vow And Declare (Aus)
Draw - 4
Jockey - Blake Shinn
Weight - 54
Odds - $26
Form - x8x00x5356
7-year-old gelding
Breeding Declaration Of War (USA) - Geblitzt
(Aus) Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Won this race as a 4YO in 2019, but was beset by back and tendon injuries before he returned for this campaign, as good, if not stronger than before, according to his trainer. Got into the race with a solid sixth in the Caulfield Cup, and now his Queensland connections will be hoping the rain stays away.
11 - Young Werther (NZ)
Draw - 21
Jockey - Damian Lane
Weight - 54
Odds - $31
Form - 32x528x430
5-year-old gelding
Breeding Tavistock (NZ)-Romantic Time (NZ)
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Another New Zealand-bred, from a Cup-winning stable, but who just battled in the Cox Plate, and hasn’t won since his first start, as a 3YO maiden, although he finished second in the Australian Derby and placed twice in subsequent Group 1 Turnbull Stakes, two starts ago. Has some support.
12 - Hoo ya Mal (GB)
Draw - 15
Jockey - Craig Williams
Weight - 53.5
Odds - $14
Form - 312×322318
4-year-old horse
Breeding Territories (Ire) - Sensationally (GB)
Trainers: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
An unplaced effort in the oldest classic of them all, the St Leger (2916m) was the last start for Hoo Ya Mal, who was also runner-up in this year’s Epsom Derby. This classy English raider from the Newmarket yard of George Boughey is vying to become the 24th 3YO (NHT) to win the Melbourne Cup.
13 - Serpentine (Ire)
Draw - 23
Jockey - John Allen
Weight - 53.5
Odds -$61
Form - x786x0x090
6-year-old gelding
Breeding Galileo (Ire) - Remember When (Ire)
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Epsom Derby winner who was in that race as a pacemaker but was not caught, then gelded and sold to Lloyd Williams to race Down Under rather than stand at stud. Earned his way into the Cup the hard way by grabbing the last ticket on Saturday in the Lexus Archer Stakes, with a dour second.
14 - Daqiansweet Junior (NZ)
Draw - 13
Jockey - Daniel Moor
Weight - 53
Odds - $41
Form - 11213×070
5-year-old gelding
Breeding Sweet Orange (USA) - Paulette (NZ)
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
The fourth New Zealand stayer swooped to win the Adelaide Cup over two miles on a slow pace in the Autumn before running on late into third in the Sydney Cup when the pace was much stronger, as it is likely to be in the Cup. Will struggle against the class of this field and will be at outside odds.
15 - Grand Promenade (GB)
Draw - 1
Jockey - Harry Coffey
Weight - 53
Odds - $81
Form - 2516x7x594
7-year-old gelding
Breeding Champs Elysees (GB) - Zacchera (GB)
Trainers: Ciaron Maher&David Eustace
An English import who has done all his racing in Australia in the leviathan Maher/Eustace, stable. His last win was in the Bart Cummings over a year ago, which punched his ticket into last year’s race, where he finished a tiring sixth. Form only fair since and will be at long odds. One for the optimists.
16 - Arapaho (Fr)
Draw - 16
Jockey - Rachel King
Weight - 52.5
Odds - $61
Form - 2721712382
6-year-old gelding
Breeding Lope De Vega (Ire) - Alzubra (GB)
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Won a listed race in France before being exported to Australia at the end of his 3YO career to the care of ex-Kiwi Bjorn Baker. Very honest horse, winning once and placing three times in his last four starts in good company. Very one-paced and probably lacks the genuine turn of foot to win this.
17 - Emissary (GB)
Draw - 3
Jockey - Patrick Moloney
Weight - 51.5
Odds - $31
Form - 53x35x1581
6-year-old gelding
Breeding Kingman (GB) - Soviet Moon (Ire)
Trainer: Michael Moroney
Deemed good enough to race in the Epsom Derby, but sold to
Australia as a tradesman stayer in ex-pat Kiwi Mike Moroney’s barn, he has risen into this race with two slashing performances this spring, the last in the Geelong Cup last month. Has that speed of foot from his former self to make him a bolter.
19 - Smokin’ Romans (NZ)
Draw - 16
Jockey - Jamie Kah
Weight - 51.5
Odds - $16
Form - 2219×92117
6-year-old gelding
Breeding Ghibellines (Aus) - Inferno (NZ)
Trainers: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Another Kiwi-bred and one of a strong hand in the race for Ciaron Maher & David Eustace, who has emerged as the most improved stayer in Australia, scooting away to win the $1,000,000 Turnbull Stks earlier in the Carnival. Ran into traffic problems in Caulfield Cup last start. Definite chance.
20 - Tralee Rose (NZ)
Draw - 22
Jockey - Dean Yendall
Weight - 51.5
Odds - $81
Form - x33219x700
6-year-old mare
Breeding Tavistock (NZ)-Star Of Tralee (NZ)
Trainer: Symon Wilde
The third New Zealand-bred by Kiwi sire Tavistock in the race, this richly bred mare won the 2021 Group 3 Geelong Cup, to get into last year’s Cup where she finished just better than midfield. A minor injury has been followed by a long period of indifferent form since.
22 - High Emocean (NZ)
Draw - 8
Jockey - Teo Nugent
Weight - 50
Odds - $41
Form - 29x25x3416
6-year-old mare
Breeding Ocean Park (NZ) - High Joy (NZ)
Trainers: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Former Kiwi mare is another from huge Maher/Eustace barn who stormed into the field with a strong win in the Bendigo Cup last week. A gear change worked the oracle two starts back in another win, at this track, against many of these. Won’t mind the wet with the 3200m trip, the only question.
23 - Interpretation (Ire)
Draw - 6
Jockey - Craig Newitt
Weight - 50
Odds - $41
Form - 11119×9000
5-year-old horse
Breeding Galileo (Ire) - Out Of Daldiyna (Fr)
Trainers: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Another well-bred Irish import who won the Listed Vinnie Roe Stakes (Listed) over 2800m, one of three staying wins in the Emerald Isle before exported to Australia. Has shown a glimpse of form this spring but would still need a big improvement to win this. Will be at juicy odds.
24 - Realm Of Flowers
Draw - 5
Jockey - Damien Thornton
Weight - 50
Odds - $9
Form - 51x006x033
6-year-old mare
Breeding So You Think (NZ)-Astral Flower (GB)
Trainers: Anthony & Sam Freedman
Two solid-placed runs this spring has been the first show of form in 12 months. Won four as a 3YO including the $400,000 The Andrew Ramsden, defeating Grand Promenade who she will meet again here. Snuck into the Cup with scratching on Friday. Hard to recommend in a field of this quality.
Scratchings:
18 Lunar Flare was pulled from the race this morning presenting with lameness in the off fore and was not passed fit.
21 Point Nepean withdrew yesterday after tests showed elevated blood results.
Tips from the experts
NZME’s racing editor Michael Guerin lists Deauville Legend (8), Gold Trip (2), Without A Fight (6) and Realm Of Flowers (24) as his top tips.
Daily Telegraph racing journalist Rob Sutherland has listed his top tips for the race, also declaring Deauville Legend (8) deserving of its favourites tag. Next best is Knights Order (3), then Montefilia (4) and Duais (2) rounding out his top four.
News.com.au’s Punters Inside Run also has Deauville Legend as their top tip, followed by Knights Order, Without A Fight and Daqiansweet Junior in the mix for a top four finish.
James Lamb from Punters.com.au joins the chorus of Deauville Legend backers by having it at the top of his rankings, followed by Without A Fight, Hoo Ya Mal and Knights Order.
Professional “Armchair Punter” Stephen Brassel has announced his top four as: Deauville Legend, Without A Fight, Duais and Gold Trip while also stating that Montefilia is a horse capable of rising to the top of the heap.
Best Bets
With an almost unanimous race favourite at such short odds, Deauville Legend at $3.50 seems like a silly bet to make for outright victory. Instead, punters might find success through combining the Irish stayer with the group of horses all vying for the minor placings in quinella or trifecta bets.
Rob Sutherland recommends the below strategy for value bets on the big race.
Box trifecta: A six-horse box trifecta (where you try to pick the first three finishers and your runners may come in any order) equals 120 combinations, so $50 gets you 41.7 per cent of the dividend.
Selections: Duais (2), Knights Order (3), Montefilia (4), Deauville Legend (8). Then throw in some value lightweight hopes in Lunar Flare (18) and Smokin’ Romans (19).
Standout trifecta: Where you put your top picks to finish first, add some others for second and more for third.
First: Duais (2), Knights Order (3), Montefilia (4), Deauville Legend (8)
Second: All above plus – Without A Fight (6), Hoo Ya Mal (12), Lunar Flare (18) and Smokin’ Romans (19)
Third: All above plus – Stockman (9), Vow And Declare (10) Daqiansweet Junior (14) and Realm Of Flowers (24)
That’s a whopping 280 combinations. So your $50 will ‘only’ get you 18 per cent of the dividend but the Cup trifecta dividend is often in the thousands, so it still has the chance to be a nice collect.
Fast Facts
Melbourne Cup Barrier Statistics
Barrier 11 has been the most successful stall, producing eight winners; most recently launching Americain to victory in 2010. Barrier 5 has won the race on seven occasions.
Verry Elleegant’s winning barrier last year was 15.
The last Melbourne Cup winner to salute from the outside barrier was Brew (2000).
Barrier 18 is the only gate never to produce a winner since barriers were first used in 1924 while barrier 7 has not tasted success since Blackwood won the race in 1924 and barrier 12 is on a 73-year run of outs since Foxami won from that draw in 1949.
Since 1982, 40 years ago - barriers 6, 7, 12, 18 and 24 have not produced a Melbourne Cup winner.
Melbourne Cup Saddlecloth Statistics
Number 4 is the most successful Melbourne Cup saddlecloth boasting 12 wins after Verry Elleegant carried that number to victory last year.
Number 12 has produced 11 winners, Makybe Diva the last in 2003 while Number 1 has 10 wins and Number 6 has won the race nine times - Twilight Payment carried No. 6 to victory in 2020.
The unluckiest Melbourne Cup saddlecloth is No. 18 – last carried to victory by Peter Pan in 1932.
Melbourne Cup Winner Stats – Age
Four and five-year-old horses have the best record in the Melbourne Cup. 4YOs have won 46 times and 5YOs have won 44 times.
Six-year-olds have performed well in the race in recent years winning three of the past nine renewals, including last year when Verry Elleegant won the race.
Melbourne Cup Winner Stats – Sex
Stallions (entires) hold the record with 72 wins in the race.
Geldings have won the race on 54 occasions.
Just 14 mares in total, 12 individuals, have won the Melbourne Cup – Verry Elleegant was the last mare to win the race last year while Makybe Diva is the most famous, winning the race in 2003, 2004 and 2005.
Winning horse colours
The colour bay is a clear standout having produced 71 Melbourne Cup winners, almost double the next best, brown with 38 winners including Verry Elleegant last year.
Chestnuts have won 35 Melbourne Cups, greys have saluted six times while black horses have claimed five victories.
Melbourne Cup Weight Facts
Since the year 2000, the most successful Melbourne Cup winning weights have been 51 to 51.5kg, 52 to 52.5kg and 54 to 54.5kg. Each weight bracket has won four Melbourne Cups since 2000.
55 to 55.5 and 56 to 56.5kg have won three Melbourne Cups each since 2000.
Heaviest weight carried to victory since 2000 was Makybe Diva in 2005. She carried 58kg to victory that year while Verry Elleegant won the race last year carrying 57kg.
The lightest weight carried to victory since 2000 was Brew in 2000. He carried 49kg.
Origin of Melbourne Cup winners since 2000
Since 2000, 14 of the Melbourne Cup winners have been bred to Northern Hemisphere time and eight are Southern Hemisphere bred.
Breaking the last 21 winners down further – Five were UK bred, five New Zealand bred, three Australian and three Irish bred and two US and two German bred. The other two winners were French, and Japanese bred.
Thirteen of the past 21 winners were trained in Australia, eight were trained in the Northern Hemisphere (four in Ireland, two in France, one in the UK, Germany and Japan) and the other Melbourne Cup winner in the past 21 years was trained in New Zealand.
Melbourne Cup Winning Colours
White is the most successful Melbourne Cup colour, in the silks of 74 winning jockeys.
Blue has been in the colours of 60 Melbourne Cup winners, narrowly ahead of black with 57 wins.
Red has returned to the winner’s stall on 48 occasions, yellow or gold 45 times, with green winning 23 Melbourne Cups.
Caulfield Cup – Melbourne Cup Double
Eleven Melbourne Cup winners won the Caulfield Cup in the lead-up – the most recent being Ethereal in 2001. Might and Power achieved the feat in 1997, Doriemus in 1995, Let’s Elope in 1991, Gurner’s Lane in 1982, Galilee in 1966 and Rising Fast in 1954.
Melbourne Cup Betting
Melbourne Cup favourites have won 32 times – Fiorente, a $7 chance in 2013, was the last favourite to salute for the punters.
Phar Lap was the shortes-priced favourite to win when $1.75 in 1930, followed by Revenue ($2.75 in 1901) and Archer ($3 in 1862).
Only four $101 roughies have won the Melbourne Cup - The Pearl in 1871, Wotan in 1936, Old Rowley in 1940 and Prince Of Penzance the most recent in 2015.
The average winning price since 2000 is $17.30.
The Melbourne Cup curse
The number 18 is something you don’t want near your horse, saddlecloth, or barrier.
Barrier 18 has never produced a Melbourne Cup winner while the number 18 has only been carried to victory once, in 1932, 90 years ago on the great Peter Pan.
