With three rounds remaining in the ANZ Championship, netball writer Adrian Seconi looks into his crystal ball to see if the Steel can deliver on its potential and make the play-offs.
Forget the Magic, Vixens and Thunderbirds at the top of the table, or the Mystics, Tactix and Pulse at the bottom. The real race is for fourth spot, with four teams jostling for the remaining semifinal place.
After 11 weeks of the ANZ Championship, the top and bottom teams have separated out, leaving a lively contest in the middle.
Four sides - the Southern Steel, Queensland Firebirds, Canterbury Tactix and West Coast Fever - are effectively competing for fourth spot on the competition ladder and a semifinal date.
Two of the four could be eliminated after this week's round. The Steel and the Firebirds play in Brisbane on Monday in a match that could determine which side gets that fourth spot.
The Steel is fourth with 12 points and a win would see it establish a four-point buffer over the fifth-placed side.
A victory would also remove the monkey from the backs of the five New Zealand franchises, which have not won on Australian soil since the competition's inception in April 2008.
Winning across the ditch is little more than a psychological hurdle, but it has proved to be a significant obstacle.
The last time the Steel played in Australia it came unstuck against an inexperienced Fever side. However, the trip to Brisbane is far less daunting than the odyssey from Invercargill to Perth.
A loss will not snuff out the Steel's prospects but a win is critical for the Firebirds, who cannot afford to fall four points behind the Steel.
The Tactix kept their hopes alive with a surprise 53-46 win against the Firebirds last Saturday, but their campaign is likely to end on Monday, when they play the Magic in Rotorua.
Likewise, the Fever has a difficult match against the New South Wales Swifts in Sydney tomorrow. The Fever won 67-66 in extra time in Perth in round five but the Swifts will have a point to prove.
It has been quite a fall for the Sydney-based side. The Swifts won the inaugural competition and, with minimal personnel changes, were expected to be involved at the business end of the tournament.
They are little more than nuisance value now, and, along with the Northern Mystics and Central Pulse, will be playing for pride.
The Magic and Vixens are safely through to the play-offs with nine wins from 10 matches apiece.
The Vixens, arguably, have the inside running for top spot with the easier run home. They play the three weakest New Zealand teams and two of the games are on their home court. The Magic has a stiffer challenge with two away games in Australia.
The Thunderbirds have all but secured a play-off spot. Only the most unlikely scenario would see them drop out of the top four. For a start, they would have to lose today's home game against the winless Pulse and that is not going to happen.
The final rounds
Games remaining for the leading teams in the transtasman championship.-
• Waikato-Bay of Plenty Magic (18 points): Tactix (home), Fever (away), Thunderbirds (away)
• Melbourne Vixens (18): Mystics (away), Tactix (home), Pulse (home)
• Adelaide Thunderbirds (16): Pulse (home), Steel (away), Magic (home)
• Southern Steel (12): Firebirds (away), Thunderbirds (home), Swifts (home)
• Queensland Firebirds (10): Steel (home), Mystics (away), Fever (away)
• Canterbury Tactix (8): Magic (away), Vixens (away), Mystics (home)
• West Coast Fever (8): Swifts (away), Magic (home), Firebirds (home)
