The Steel has qualified for the play-offs but a home venue awaits if it can upset the New South Wales Swifts in Sydney tonight.
A shock Queensland Firebirds 67-59 defeat by the West Coast Fever in Perth last night cleared the way for the Steel to secure a semifinal appearance.
The unbeaten Swifts have already wrapped up top place with 12 wins, and the Waikato-Bay of Plenty Magic nabbed a play-off spot with a 53-44 win against the second-placed Adelaide Thunderbirds, in Rotorua on Saturday.
The Swifts will host the major semifinal at Acer Arena in Sydney on Sunday. Its opponent will almost certainly be the Adelaide Thunderbirds unless the Steel can achieve the improbable and beat the Swifts by more than 30 goals.
Barring that unlikely scenario, the Steel and the Magic will contest the minor semifinal the following day. Whether the game is in Invercargill or the North Island hinges on the result of tonight's game.
If the Steel beats the Swifts it will leap-frog the Magic and host the crucial match.
The Fever's eight-goal win was fantastic news for the Steel but the players were probably among the last southerners to learn the result. While the Fever was doing them a huge favour, they were in the air somewhere between Invercargill and Sydney and would not have heard the news until they touched down.
The combined Otago-Southland team has never won an ANZ Championship game in Australia and will go into the match as underdog.
The Steel is unlikely to shift too far from the game plan which has worked so well for it during the past month. One of the more patient teams in the league, the Steel has been content to pass the ball around and wait for players to get clear.
It is not exactly dashing netball, but it has proved effective, as the franchise has won its past four games.
But the slow tempo can prove risky against an opponent with a strong defensive line-up. And in Sonia Mkoloma and Rebecca Bulley, the Swifts arguably have one of the most effective defensive units in the tournament.
Mkoloma has snatched 28 intercepts and has been a dominant force at the back for the 2008 champion. Bulley has stepped up this season and has been powerful in the air with 33 defensive rebounds.
Mercurial shooter Daneka Wipiiti made a slow start to the season for the Steel but has settled into her work nicely, landing 86% of her attempts.
At 1.94m, she has a 10cm height advantage over Mkoloma and 8cm on Bulley.
It is a significant advantage which the Steel will look to exploit.
She will look to hold first but has introduced more movement into her game this year and is harder to defend, and her combination with Megan Dehn has developed.
The Steel will need the best from defenders Leana de Bruin and Te Huinga Reo Selby-Rickit. The pair have surprised many with their combination.
They shut down Irene van Dyk in the 52-47 win against the Magic in Invercargill in round 10 and blunted the Northern Mystics attack with some good work around the fringes.
Swifts shooter Susan Pratley has shot relatively well but the experienced Catherine Cox is landing just 74.5% of her attempts, well below what it needs to be. If de Bruin and Selby-Rickit can cut off their supply of ball, the Steel's odds will improve dramatically.
STEEL v SWIFTS
Venue: Sydney Olympic Park Sports Centre
Time: Tonight 9pm
Previous Matches
- 2009: Invercargill, Steel 55-48
- 2008: Sydney, Swifts 53-42
Game Plan
- The Steel will look to put pressure on Swifts shooters Catherine Cox and Susan Pratley and cut down their supply of ball. The Swifts defensive combination of Rebecca Bulley and Sonia Mkoloma will have a similar plan in mind.
