Win and secure a playoff spot.
Lose, or draw, and leave the season hanging in the balance.
That is the equation for Southern United in the national women’s football league with two rounds to go.
Despite having a bye this weekend, the competition leader appears to be in control of its own fate.
Thirteen points looks to be the magic number to clinch a playoff berth — a number Southern can reach with a win over Capital next weekend.
Southern leads the league with 10 points and is followed by Auckland on nine, Northern and Canterbury United on seven and Capital on six.
The two key matches remaining — as far as the 13 points are concerned — are the ones involving Auckland.
It travels to Canterbury, before hosting Northern.
If Auckland were to win both games it would go top with 15 points, leaving Northern and Canterbury unable to reach more than 10.
For Northern or Canterbury to reach that 13, it would involve them winning both remaining games. That would involve them taking three points off Auckland, which would leave it with either nine or 12.
Of course, a loss, or a draw, against Capital would complicate things for Southern.
It would not be a lost cause, although it would leave it relying on other results.
Auckland, Northern and Canterbury all have better goal differences, on six, five and four respectively, to Southern’s one.
That means Southern is keen to avoid a tie, which is a possibility via the Auckland situation.
A loss would also open up the possibility of Capital sneaking a spot.
It can still reach 12 points with wins over Northern and Southern.
That would also limit those opponents to a maximum of 10 points, which would push Capital into the top three.
A draw could yet be enough for Southern — although that would be playing with fire.
If Northern and Canterbury were to beat Capital and Central respectively, and then each draw with Auckland, it would leave a four-way tie on 11 points.
That would again mean Southern would it lose out on goal difference, which would be a heart-breaking finish to what has been a brilliant season.
However, virtually any other combination of results from those games would see it through.
Perhaps an ideal situation would be for Northern to beat Capital, knocking Capital out of contention.
That would mean Southern would come up against a team playing for pride, rather than one playing for its life.
Either way, this is an in-form Southern team playing the best football it has in years.
Winning is the easiest route through and this is a side more than capable of doing that.
- There has been a change to the original schedule of the Southern United men for this weekend’s home game against Hawke’s Bay United.
The match will now kick off at 11am on Sunday at Sunnyvale, as opposed to 2pm on Saturday.
The youth team will play at Tahuna Park on Saturday at 2pm.
The game times were swapped in order to work in with flight availability between Dunedin and Napier, alongside the availability of Sunnyvale Park on Saturday.
Southern’s round 16 match against Team Wellington at Sunnyvale Park has also been moved to 2pm on February 11.
Correction: When teams are tied in the National Women's League the first tiebreaker is head-to-head wins, rather than goal difference. Therefore a tie with Canterbury United and Northern would favour Southern should that happen.
