Auckland has all but booked its berth with 22 points from seven games. Canterbury is in second place with 18 points and enjoys a six-point buffer over the chasing duo of Otago and Central Districts. Northern Districts and Wellington have 10 points apiece and, realistically, would need a minor miracle to make the January 22 final.
One of those sides will be eliminated proper when they meet at the Basin Reserve tomorrow.
Otago's day of reckoning comes on Black Friday when it plays Canterbury at the University Oval. A loss will knock the Volts out of the running.
Assuming Otago can get past its rival, it will need to win again on Sunday when it plays the competition front-runner.
Should Canterbury lose to Wellington at Hagley Oval on the same day, Otago would move ahead of Canterbury.
If Canterbury beats Wellington, Otago will need to rely on Auckland beating Canterbury at Colin Maiden Park on Tuesday.
The Volts will then need to beat Northern Districts in Hamilton on January 19.
Basically, Otago needs to win all three of its remaining games and hope Canterbury loses at least two of its remaining games.
Central Districts is in the same predicament as Otago.
The Volts lost valuable opportunities with two games abandoned due to poor weather. But coach Vaughn Johnson said inconsistency had cost his side and the team had only itself to blame for the desperate situation.
"We have to forget about the weather, forget about the game we should have won in Timaru and one or two other things which have happened.
"Every game is pretty much a final for us now and we need to beat Canterbury and then Auckland on Sunday. If we are still a chance in the last game then that is all good and well.
"I don't think we've have been [consistent enough]. At times our bowling has let us down and then it has been our batting which hasn't been consistent. We're losing wickets in clumps. We've addressed that and, in terms of the bowling, we are not hitting our yorkers as well as we need to be at the death.
"We played really well in Queenstown and then we lost in Nelson because we lost four quick wickets and lost in Auckland the other night because we lost five quick wickets."
Otago will tomorrow name its side to play Canterbury. If there are any changes, left-hander Hamish Rutherford would be at the top of the list. He struck a belligerent 120 off 96 balls against Northern Districts in the provincial A tournament last week.
Experienced medium-pacer Warren McSkimming is back bowling well. He has been sidelined with a knee complaint this summer but took four wicket at an average of 20 in three games.
He was also rather miserly, conceding an average of just 3.07 runs an over, although that was in one-day cricket.
With the success slow bowlers have been having in the HRV Cup, spinner Mark Craig might also be an outside chance, and all-rounder Sam Wells has been in good touch with the ball.
Otago will probably stick with the same 12 which fronted for the abandoned match against Wellington on Sunday. But there must be a few players feeling the pressure to perform.
Neil Wagner is Otago's leading wicket-taker but he has been expensive, conceding more than 10 runs an over. All-rounder Jimmy Neesham has been more effective with the bat than the ball.
Otago's top five or six batsman have not fired as you might expect. Brendon McCullum has been the pick of them with 201 runs at 33.50.
Experienced batsman Craig Cumming has been under-utilised with others getting the opportunity to bat above him.
Neil Broom scored 77 of his 106 runs in a losing effort against Canterbury, and Aaron Redmond has not been able to stamp his mark on the tournament the way he has managed in the past.
Former England international Dimitri Mascarenhas has been Otago's best-performed bowler and his 43 against Wellington in Queenstown opening the innings has boosted his batting tally.
