Bruce Robertson, who also chairs the Ministry of Primary Industries risk committee, told members of the Southland District Council finance and assurance committee last week, he believed it was only a matter of time before the H5N1 strain it was found on New Zealand’s shores — possibly as early as 2026.
"This is quite a worry, because it will hit us first."
He warned the strain was expected to enter the country via migrant birds from Antarctica and challenge the poultry business — particularly the free range egg industry.
"It’s going to be significant.
"I suspect as a food and agriculture economy we should be pretty wary about this baby."
He said it could affect domestic production.
"Even though the rest of the world has it, it suddenly creates challenges for our own export industry.
"It’s coming. The signs are when, not if."
External influences could not be controlled, but council should be thinking about a response, he said.
Council risk analyst Jane Edwards said H5N1 was expected to arrive in the nation with migrating birds.
"But it was only in the [United] States, we’ve seen that crossover into cows, but there’s that potential it could happen here."
Mr Robertson advised council was unlikely in the long term the strain would be kept out of New Zealand or that it would be possible to eradicate it once established in the wild bird population.
An MPI spokesperson said bird flu came in two types — low and high pathogenicity.
The (high) H5N1, detected in the northern hemisphere in 2020 and sub-antarctic islands in 2024, could infect a broader range of birds and cause more poultry, waterfowl, shore and seabird deaths.
It had also impacted more than 60 species of mammal, including marine mammals.
But cattle generally recovered in about three weeks.
Te Wae Wae Eggs owners Rob and Ann Penn said they ran about 3000 chickens on their free range egg MPI accredited farm.
Accredited farms were required to have robust biosecurity protocols to help to maintain their flock’s security and health.
Farmers were required to notify MPI immediately if there was any sudden change in the health of the birds, Mr Penn said.
They had not been told the virus was causing a threat, but it would be "business as usual" until the virus appeared on our shores.
"We can’t stop it from coming here.
"We hope our [country’s] isolation will be our friend."
As small operators, any outbreak on their property would prove to be "catastrophic", they said.
Mr Robertson said it was a situation that needed to be watched.
By Toni McDonald
