Wanaka Airport is up for change — there is no doubt about that.
But how much change is the question.
The indications are Air New Zealand Airbus A320s from Auckland, with 171 people on board, are ready to land at Wanaka just as soon as the airport infrastructure is ready to take them.
But will it stop there, or will direct flights to Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane begin?
And beyond that, there is the spectacular speculation Wanaka Airport might take the really big wide-body jets carrying more than 800 passengers.
Aircraft of that sort have been ruled out for Queenstown Airport but Wanaka, it is understood, has the geographical capability, if not any of the immense amount of infrastructure required.
Auckland aviation commentator Peter Clark crash-lands the wide-body jet theory in an instant.
"It’s like pie in the sky.
"I cannot understand why anyone is suggesting wide-bodies.
"I’m shocked at that, because you have got capability already at Invercargill, Dunedin and Christchurch."
He would even question the likelihood of transtasman flights from Wanaka.
"I know the airport well. ... and it’s a great location.
"But I cannot see future planning going beyond the capability of domestic A320-style ... aircraft for domestic operations."
John Nicholson is chief executive of Aviation New Zealand, which represents about 300 commercial aviation interests including Air New Zealand.Asked to consider the wide-body jet speculation, Mr Nicholson said: "You wouldn’t rule anything out and I would expect the new owner would be looking at those sorts of things.
"They’ll have some end goal in mind.
"But I don’t know what that is."
If the corporation has an end goal in mind it is not saying, preferring for the moment to give the public its chance for a say on what should, could or might happen at the airport.
Those ideas are being compiled in a report due out by mid-August — part of a "master plan" for Wanaka Airport.
But the real drivers of change will be the airlines, which begin their "conversations" with the Queenstown Airport Corporation at the end of the year.
Air New Zealand declined to discuss this process with the Otago Daily Times.
Queenstown Airport Corporation communications manager Jen Andrews said Air New Zealand had "already publicly expressed their interest in Wanaka" but it also understood there was much planning to do.
"There are various planning phases to go through ... but the demand forecasting phase is when we would be looking at all the different aircraft wanting to use the airport so would potentially be talking to airlines then.
"It’s like a new route or when we introduced evening flights — we have to do work to understand the demand of airfield users, the mix of aircraft and infrastructure and costs involved, and they need to look at potential demand and what is commercially feasible."
Aviation experts have plenty of cautionary tales to tell about commercial feasibility.
Mr Nicholson mentions a defunct international airport in Spain, although he cannot recall the name.
A check of Wikipedia shows Ciudad Real Central Airport, capable of taking 800-passenger Airbus A380s, and handling 10 million passengers per year opened in 2009 and closed in 2012.
It cost €1.1 billion.
And there is also Hamilton, which has unused infrastructure built for transtasman flights that did not last.
New Zealand Airport Association chief executive Kevin Ward says there are many factors to weigh up when considering the type of infrastructure to put in place, with the ever-present risk of over-capitalising.
"Every region has the ability to set its own ambitions, and think about should we also be in this international, or at least transtasman, business as well.
"So it’s really open to the ambitions of the regions and where they see themselves going in the future."
There is one thing about Wanaka Airport Mr Nicholson expects has already begun to change.
"When you get larger, more commercial organisations, the profit motive becomes much stronger."
Wanaka Airport is owned by the Queenstown Lakes District Council, and until March this year it was a just another piece of council infrastructure.
Now it is leased to the Queenstown Airport Corporation — a 100-year lease for which the corporation paid $14.5million.
The corporation is 75.01% owned by the council and 24.99% owned by Auckland International Airport Ltd.
Mr Nicholson believes the Auckland connection will be very influential in Wanaka Airport’s future.
"Auckland Airport has been very successful at getting new airlines to fly into New Zealand and I can see as part of their business model having that ability then to move people to another airport that they own makes a lot of commercial sense.
"There would have to be an upside for the region, given Auckland Airport’s involvement and the fact that it brings in the bulk of tourists to New Zealand.
"The down side is the impact it might have on the existing recreational and general aviation users because Auckland International Airport has very few non-airline flights.
"They’ve all moved away."
Wanaka Airport businesses are all, ultimately, at the mercy of the corporation.
They might own their hangars and other buildings but can only lease the land on which they stand.As the Wakatipu Aero Club found out in 2015, when its lease at Queenstown Airport ran out, the corporation dictates. The club is now at Kingston.
Kelly Buick and his brother Jason operate the turbine helicopter engineering business Heli Support New Zealand at Wanaka Airport.
They have a new 15-year lease.
"So in that term at least they seem to be quite OK with the fact we are going to be here," Kelly Buick said.
However, there are other concerns.
Mr Buick understands the current cost of leasing land at Queenstown Airport is $30 per metre per year while at Wanaka it is "still under $7".
The corporation would not confirm the figures for the ODT.
The other cost is landing fees — for the lightest aircraft at Wanaka each landing costs $10 including GST and at Queenstown it is $21.25 plus GST.
Those things matter when your business has five buildings at the airport and a staff of 30 maintaining 47 turbine helicopters — as is the case for the Buick brothers’ business.
Landing fees are under review at present.
Aside from cheaper rent, Wanaka has other advantages over Queenstown for the Buick brothers — the ability to ground-run helicopters late at night without causing disturbance being one example.
"Obviously [Wanaka Airport] is quite an easy place to be because the airport is already zoned for this sort of activity," Kelly Buick said.
Other businesses are expecting to have to adapt, when scheduled jet services begin.
Sky Dive Wanaka general manager Clark Scott said sky diving happened at commercial airports elsewhere and he was confident it could be done at Wanaka.
"We’re working through a process with QAC and it’s exciting for the community, it’s positive for the community."
Warbirds Over Wanaka International Airshow general manager Ed Taylor said he believed the airshow’s future at the Wanaka Airport was secure.
"Queenstown Airport Corporation have been quite vocal in their support of the airshow continuing at Wanaka Airport."
He points to Melbourne’s Avalon Airport, which fits a major, week-long aviation event around its scheduled airline services.
"They have commercial jets taking off between airshow displays. So it can be done."
The Queenstown Airport Corporation does get credit from all sides for the way it has handled growth at Queenstown Airport. It remains to be seen how well it handles growth at Wanaka, which 300 people rely on for a job.
