Farmers and skifields are taking a wait-and-see attitude to predictions of a warmer than average winter across Otago.
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research outlook statistics released yesterday suggest inland Otago has a 70% chance of above-average temperatures over the next three months while eastern Otago had a 65% chance of above-average temperatures.
Data collected by Niwa between 1981 and 2010 suggests the mean air temperature for Alexandra is 4.2degC while Dunedin's is 7.2degC.
Farmers were desperate for crop growth over winter after drought conditions in eastern and central areas of Otago meant some had to use winter feed early and cut stock.
Federated Farmers Otago provincial president Phill Hunt said warmth, combined with consistent rainfall over the winter, would be ideal.
"It would certainly be good if it remained warm for those areas that are short of feed,'' Mr Hunt said.
"[But] they're predictions and we can read a lot into them but whether it happens on the ground ...''
Ideally, soil temperatures would remain above 6degC to ensure growth over winter but that was unlikely, especially in Central Otago, he said.
Coronet Peak Ski Area manager Ross Copland was not worried warmer temperatures might affect snow.
The nature of the statistics made it difficult to take anything out of it, he said.
In 2013, the warmest winter for more than 100 years in Queenstown, Coronet Peak was closed on only five days, he said.
"We are very well equipped to deal with warm winters.
"The big difficulty is if we get rain. Rain really knocks around the snow. That's more the challenge.''
Mr Copland said 426 staff were starting work at the ski field today.
The Remarkables Ski Area manager Ross Lawrence said he did not anticipate "too much difference'' to operations or snowfall amounts.
Preparations were going "exceptionally well'' for opening day on June 18 he said.
Niwa National Climate Centre principal scientist Chris Brandolino said there were signals that some places could be much warmer than average.
"We have pretty warm ocean temperatures to the west and that will help keep things a bit more warm around us,'' Mr Brandolino said.
"It doesn't mean there won't be cold snaps and frosts.''
Climate change might be having an effect on temperatures but "it was hard to say'', he said.
