Climate change offers ‘opportunities’

A picnic table in Arthur Strang Reserve, Balclutha, gets wet feet thanks to an overflowing Clutha...
A picnic table in Arthur Strang Reserve, Balclutha, gets wet feet thanks to an overflowing Clutha River during widespread district flooding in February. PHOTO: RICHARD DAVISON
Climate change could bring opportunities as well as challenges for the Clutha District, a council report says.

The report, prepared by Dunedin firm GHC Consulting, and received at a recent council meeting, says overall Clutha is expected to become "warmer and wetter" by the end of the century.

The conclusions, which highlight concerns around increased flooding and sea-level rises for the district’s low-lying riverside and coastal areas, are expected to inform the council’s strategic planning during the next several years.

It also strikes some optimistic notes, however, saying the effects of climate change could bring "new opportunities" to Clutha.

"The agricultural and forestry sectors may face new challenges in terms of flood and water management, yet they may also benefit from improved winter pasture growth and new cropping opportunities.

"Tourism, particularly in the Catlins, may benefit from overall warmer weather; however, wildlife, coastal landforms, and local infrastructure may be affected by sea-level rise and erosion."

Among the report’s key findings are an increase of up to 20 more days a year above 30deg C, and up to 50 fewer frost days, by 2090.

The highest increases in temperature are predicted for West Otago.

Those visiting the Catlins may welcome a prediction of up to four more dry days a year, although this could be offset by up to five more heavy-rain days, of greater than 25mm.

Mean annual rainfall for the district is expected to increase by as much as 20% by 2090.

Milton, Waihola and surrounds are expected to bear the brunt of these increases.

Concerningly for Balclutha, which has seen an upsurge in extreme flood events during recent years, the Clutha River is expected to experience an overall increase in flow, especially during the winter and spring months.

This could lead to "more frequent localised flooding", the report says.

Although the report drew on the "best available" scientific data at present, combined with anecdotal reports from Clutha residents, it should be updated as understanding of climate change improved, GHC Consulting said.

"Local residents are already experiencing, and some have begun the process of adapting to, a changing climate.

"It is hoped this report will form part of an ongoing effort to understand, and respond to, climate change [in the district]."

richard.davison@odt.co.nz

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