Significant increases in Otago school rolls

Otago schools have recorded their most significant roll increase in more than a decade, with 352 more pupils in the region than last year, Ministry of Education figures show.

The region's March Roll Return hit rock bottom in 2009, when schools recorded just 29,511 enrolled pupils. Since then, rolls have moved upwards again.

In the past 12 months, Otago's March Roll Return increased from 29,552 to an indicative 29,904.

It is within 562 pupils of the 10-year high of 30,467 pupils in 2004.

The regional increase during the past year was largely driven by the Lakes District (3204-3389), Dunedin (13,794-13,910), and Central Otago (2963-3027) schools, with less significant increases posted in West Otago and North and East Otago.

Schools in the Taieri area have recorded roll declines for the past two years, despite moving upwards during the previous decade.

And South Otago schools posted rolls equating to 2333 this year, the lowest in more than a decade.

Statistics New Zealand senior demographer Kim Dunstan said there was a ''general upswing'' in birth numbers in the region between 2006 and 2010.

He said the regional increase in the school-age population (age 5-15) was being driven by population movement to Queenstown and Wanaka, and a small increase in the number of births in the area.

''Queenstown remains one of the fastest-growing local authorities across the country. Birth rates have increased from 150 births a year in the 1990s to around 400 a year now.

''Projections suggest those numbers have now plateaued.''

Mr Dunstan said there were about 22,700 school-aged children in the Otago region in 2011, and the number was projected to make small increases during the next five-10 years before plateauing about 24,000.

''The only thing that would change that projection is if fertility rates changed,'' he said.

He said the Waitaki and Clutha areas appeared to be static, if not declining gradually.

''There's some year-to-year fluctuations in births, showing occasional ups and downs. But the general trend is downward.''

Mr Dunstan said Dunedin population projections suggested there would be a further, but slight, drop in the school-age population between now and 2016, which would relate to relative birth numbers over preceding years.

However, it was expected to increase again in small but steady increments over the next two decades, he said.

Otago Secondary Principals' Association president Rick Geerlofs was delighted with the numbers.

''That's very encouraging news for schools.

''School rolls have been declining for quite some time in Otago and it has put quite a lot of pressure on schools.

''They've had to be creative in maintaining a breadth of curriculum.

''It's forced schools to look at ways in which they can deliver it, which works for them.''

Otago Primary Principals' Association president Whetu Cormick said the increased numbers would strengthen schools' abilities to provide more educational opportunities for pupils, because they would get more resourcing from the Ministry of Education.

However, he believed the increasing rolls may become an issue, particularly for primary schools, in the Lakes District and Central Otago.

As the rolls continued to increase in places such as Queenstown, schools there would struggle to find places to educate pupils because they were all already highly populated, he said.

The new Remarkables School had been built to relieve some of the increasing population pressure, and there were several other proposals in hand to build new schools in the area.

john.lewis@odt.co.nz

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