Lake Wanaka Tourism chief executive John Alldred attributed the lack of growth in the summer to factors being felt throughout New Zealand: the high New Zealand dollar, record fuel prices and slowing domestic economy.
A fourth problem affecting Lake Wanaka Tourism's performance was underfunding.
All factors were beyond the control of the Wanaka tourism industry, he said.
Guest night statistics for this year have yet to be collated but data to the end of March shows the number of guest nights were down 2% in January and down 11% in February, compared to the same month last year.
However, guest nights increased in March by 14%, reflecting a trend towards increased growth in the shoulder seasons, Mr Alldred said at Tuesday's board meeting.
There had been 3.4% growth in the number of annual guest nights in Wanaka in the year ending June 2007, slightly ahead of the predicted 3%.
Between June 30, 2005, and June 30, 2007, the number of annual guest nights had risen from 521,097 to 543,746.
Mr Alldred said the most recent statistics did not look too healthy and national trends suggested things were going to get tougher.
"New projections provided by Tourism New Zealand of 2.2% growth per annum for the next seven years appear very realistic and lower than the previous seven years.
"The next 18 months will be very testing for the entire tourism industry.
"This suggests people wanting to invest in the tourism industry should research their idea well before proceeding, since many sectors have been growing faster than visitor numbers," Mr Alldred said.
Despite the less than rosy outlook, Mr Alldred said promotions in Europe and the United Kingdom were continuing to make an impact.
Information had been handed out to thousands of competitors at a long-distance triathlon event in France and there would be a trade display at Challenge Roth, in Germany, next month.
Planning is also under way for the 2009 Festival of Colour.
Australia was Wanaka's biggest market, although not the fastest growing.
"Wanaka is still holding its head up. There is not much we can do about high fuel prices. We just have to weather it out and step up our promoting," he said.
Board member Ken Copland asked how Lake Wanaka Tourism measured success and how Mr Alldred knew his overseas promotions campaigns were working.
Mr Alldred said the guest night statistics were the "only real measure" but agreed it was hard to link the promotional campaigns to visitor numbers.
This was because of the way information was collected by Statistics New Zealand and in many ways, it was a case of having to believe the promotions were creating the desired effect, he said.
"Stats New Zealand just give us a blank number. They do not tell us where they come from. It is a real pain," Mr Alldred said.
Wanaka's I-site was one of four in New Zealand earning an income, he said.
