Queenstown's tourism industry is set to recover next year after a slump in total visitor nights in 2009, according to Ministry of Tourism forecasts.
The ministry's New Zealand Regional Tourism Forecasts 2009-15 show the total visitor nights in Queenstown were forecast to drop 4.8% between 2008 and 2009, but would recover in 2010 to climb steadily until 2015.
However, some Queenstown motel owners were less optimistic.
Amity Lodge owner Doug Champion said even if the numbers rose, small motel owners would still suffer because of the oversupply of beds in the resort.
"Queenstown has so many unused beds. The town has grown so much, so even if visitor numbers come up they will be absorbed because we have so many more beds. We have apartments coming out of our ears," he said.
Large hotel chains were "culling" their prices to gain occupancy rates and individual motel owners could not compete, he said.
In the four months from May to June, his motel's revenue was down more than 26% and occupancy dropped 14%, he said.
"We have an oversupply in a time of depression, so prices are coming down. We are working harder for less and I think it will continue for a while," he said.
The winter months were buoyed by increasing numbers of Australian visitors enjoying spending their $900 tax bonus.
However, he did not expect them to come for summer - "their beaches are better than ours" - or next winter because they would not have benefit of this year's one-off tax bonus.
Queenstown Motel Apartment owner and New Zealand Motel Association president Peter Smith was cautious about forecasting growth after 2010.
"I think I'm more pessimistic, or more realistic. The growth predicted will be hard to get," he said, anticipating next year would be on a par with 2009.
Earnslaw Lodge owner Lynley Jones did not expect the number of international visitors to increase next year.
"I'd expect a slump in overseas visitors, particularly with so many in the UK losing jobs," she said.
The Regional Tourism Forecast shows overall visitor nights would rise in Queenstown from 3.43 million in 2008 to 3.75 million in 2015 - a total increase of 9.4%, or 1.3% a year.
International visitor nights were expected to increase 12.4% from 2.31 million in 2008 to 2.60 million in 2015.
Forecasts said domestic visitor nights were expected to increase from 1.11 million in 2008 to 1.15 million in 2015.
In 2008, international and domestic travellers made a total of 1.74 million visits to Queenstown.
This figure was set to rise to 1.91 million by 2015.
Travellers from Australia accounted for the largest share of international visits to Queenstown in 2008, at 33.9%, followed by the United Kingdom, at 15.1% and the United States, at 11%.
In 2015, the largest share of international visits to Queenstown was expected to come from Australia, at 36.7%, followed by the United Kingdom, at 12.7% and the United States, at 10.1%.
Travellers from Otago accounted for the largest share of domestic visits to Queenstown in 2008, at 31%, followed by Southland, at 21.4% and Canterbury, at 17.3%.
In 2015, the largest share of domestic visits to Queenstown was expected to come from Otago, at 31.3%, followed by Southland, at 20.6% and Canterbury, at 17.9%.
