No telling what Otago weather might bring

Strange, variable, mad - are some of the adjectives used to describe Otago's weather for most of this year.

Up to the end of November, 2009 had been a year of temperature fluctuations with record-breaking highs and lows - sometimes in the same month - and extremely low and high monthly rainfall.

Dunedin hydrologist Dave Stewart said it had been a unusual year for weather.

"Since May it has been totally out of kilter."

There were months such as May, which was the wettest on record and cold; October, the coldest on record; and November where persistent wind dried out what little rain fell, he said.

Winter started out colder than average, but in the middle of July, temperatures turned around and for two months it was unusually warm.

"It was very unusual for that time of year.

"It lasted two months and then turned to custard."

Cold temperatures returned and stayed until early December.

There did not seem to be any reason for the "strange" weather.

"It's an aberration which often happens with weather. We just don't know what will turn up," he said.

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) senior climate scientist Georgina Griffiths said it was a lack of traditional westerlies that had contributed to Otago's more variable weather pattern for the year.

She characterised Otago's weather for the first 11 months as "dry, cold and sunny".

"You had northerlies or southerlies but nothing in between.

"The lack of westerlies has been very important to Otago."

But the temperature highs were not normal, she said.

"It is not typical to have such astounding temperature variation."

The variable weather was not the result of climate change.

La Nina weather patterns were apparent early in the year.

It then drifted into "not much of anything" until November, when El Nino intensified, Dr Griffiths said.

El Nino typically brought cooler, dry conditions on the east coast.

Variation occurred not only from month to month but within a month, as well.

September was an example, when the region broke records for both cold and heat, she said.

On September 5, the region experienced its coldest September morning, then on September 14, a record warm temperature was recorded.

In May, Otago received at least two significant snowfalls.

The snow also closed roads in and around Dunedin, but it was not until June that snow to sea level brought the city to a near standstill.

While looking at monthly rainfall totals for Otago led to an impression of a very dry year, the overall rainfall total to the end of November was not too low, she said.

The January to November rainfall at Dunedin airport was 554mm, 94% of what was typical for the average for those 11 months.

Oamaru had 523mm, 114% of what was typical for that period.

Coastal regions of Otago appeared to have had 500mm to 550mm of rain to the end of November, which was fairly close to what was "typical" compared with the 30-year "normal" climate, she said.

Recordings at Musselburgh, in Dunedin, showed rainfall for the first 11 months was 696mm, 87% of the normal 805mm.

The average temperature at Musselburgh was 10.6degC compared with the annual average of 11.1degC and sunshine hours were 1526, 96% of normal.

Inland, records showed about 300mm to 350mm of rain to the end of November.

"Surprisingly, this is close to. . . the 30-year `normal' climate for these 11 months," she said.

Temperatures were more than 2degC above average in Central Otago and the Lakes District in August.

Nationally, it was the warmest August since records began 155 years ago.

In September, Alexandra had the highest temperature for the month, 29degC on September 14.

- rebecca.fox@odt.co.nz

 

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