El Nino has a near 100% chance of continuing through to April, leading to lower rainfall and strong winds in Otago and Southland, Niwa says in its three-month outlook.
In their report, Niwa indicated above-average temperatures were likely across the country and early this month fire-risk conditions in Otago were the highest in the country.
Dry spells are likely to continue through this month and into the next.
Rainfall is expected to be near to or below average and temperatures higher than average in both Otago and Southland.
The New Zealand Drought Index showed moderate to extremely dry conditions were occurring across Otago and the Mackenzie Basin and Niwa predicted this would continue through the coming season.
Soil moisture levels and river flows were expected to be below normal, which matched the national outlook.
Despite lower-than-average rainfall ahead in Otago and Southland, the West Coast was expected to have above-average rainfall for the second season in a row.
Niwa said the air pressure was forecast to be below normal in the South, which could cause more northwesterly winds than normal for this time of year.
Marine heatwaves were recorded in the eastern South Island and sea surface temperatures were up by an average of 1.34°C between November and last month.
Similar heatwaves were expected to contribute to high humidity through the next three months, which could lead to increased moisture contributing to approaching weather systems.
