National thought the South might roll over and in due course accept the hospital downgrade.
Even now, after an estimated 35,000 people marched in opposition, senior ministers foolishly seem to think they can ride out the storm.
The ministers fail to comprehend the depth of fervour and the unity in Dunedin and the South.
This passion is magnified because a quality tertiary hospital is a matter of life and death for the region.
Along with the betrayal comes feelings of abandonment.
After all, apart from some work in Queenstown, none of the billions to be spent on new roading is coming South.
Meanwhile, this week, Air New Zealand announced the cutting of the Invercargill to Wellington flights and the downgrading of planes and capacity between Dunedin and Wellington and Queenstown and Christchurch.
National is facing a bloodbath in the Dunedin and Taieri electorates unless National finds a way to undo its perfidy.
It faces losing many ‘‘party’’ votes in other southern electorates.
Instead of just the ‘‘swing’’ voters, those who usually decide elections, National is in peril of losing many regular supporters.
The view that the South can be ignored because there aren’t enough votes only adds to the determination to make National pay.
National would be unwise to write off the Dunedin electorate because it is traditionally Labour red with a strong streak of Green.
Last year National faced a debacle in the Dunedin seat after its city standard bearer in Parliament for 15 years, Michael Woodhouse, was placed low on National’s list in an unelectable position.
That was a kick in the teeth to Dunedin in its own right.
Mr Woodhouse withdrew himself from the list and did not campaign.
National chose to bring in outsiders for public meetings in the electorate.
Given that background, National’s party vote in Dunedin should have suffered badly.
National, however, managed a respectable 9652 votes (22.64% of votes cast).
Labour’s percentage was 30.86 and the Greens’ 26.85.
National has more to lose in the Taieri electorate, which includes the southern suburbs of Dunedin, Mosgiel and much of Clutha.
The party’s party vote was 14,206 (33.42%), just trailing Labour’s 14,507 (34.12%).
Invercargill, Southland, and Waitaki are all National electorate seats where there are many votes to be lost.
Voters could, for example, support their individual National MP while placing their crucial party choice elsewhere.
Angered and vengeful citizens will have every reason to bad-mouth National to all their friends and relatives in other parts of the country.
Recent elections show traditional loyalties are weaker.
Jacinda Ardern’s Labour swept through traditional National strongholds in 2020.
National lost pockets of traditional farmer support to Act New Zealand last year.
The hospital is a sore that, unless National can find healing ointment, will fester all the way to the next election.
It is an issue that is far too big and far too important.
If National is unwilling to pay for a proper hospital done once and done right, it must be made to pay.
★ ★ ★
The columns of the ODT this year have been sprinkled with one of the most hideous made-up words imaginable: districtisation.
It took Civis a few goes to sound out and spell the word. Have a go yourself.
It has been used in the debate on a Central Otago District Council policy which means every ratepayer, more or less, pays the same amount for council services.
Districtisation even warranted an ODT news story, and Central Mayor Tim Cadogan was asked where it might have come from.
He believed the word was first used about the districtisation of Three Waters in 2015, but the actual genesis was lost in time.
