Uncertain times for everyone

The election and resurrection of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States guarantees rollercoaster years ahead.

Mr Trump won not just in swing states but also the overall popular vote. The Senate is now Republican-controlled, and the House of Representatives appears likely to be as well.

Add a conservative Supreme Court to the mix and Mr Trump has more power and ability to make changes than many presidents.

Voting choices spring from perception and emotion. Enough of the electorate wanted change, rejected the "liberal elites" and felt worse off economically. Immigration matters and crime were further reasons to tick red.

New Zealand, the world and many in the US now look to the Trump future with trepidation. His tariff policies, his disdain for international co-operative organisations and his erratic foreign policy are alarming. His likely expansion of the already massive US federal budget deficit could reignite inflation internationally, such is the power and influence of the globe’s largest economy.

If Ukraine is sold down the river to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, that sets a scary precedent where might is right and the security of smaller, independent countries is weakened. The rule-based international order is undermined.

This tiny trading nation will be buffeted if across-the-board tariffs are placed on imports to what is New Zealand’s second-largest market. Former National leader Todd Muller, a US specialist, said the election brings "nothing good". Former trade minister Tim Groser said: "It’s all negative".

Trump looks on at a campaign rally. PHOTO: ODT FILES
Trump looks on at a campaign rally. PHOTO: ODT FILES
However, tariffs have yet to happen. The reality they will inflate US prices might curtail parts of the policy.

Naturally, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the right words. He was "looking forward to building New Zealand’s relationship with his [Mr Trump’s] incoming administration."

It will not hurt that the government is not left-leaning and Mr Luxon has worked in senior US business roles.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters said, after the obligatory congratulations, "New Zealand and the United States are two great democratic, open societies — and our bilateral relationship will continue to go from strength to strength".

Mr Peters’ positivity towards the US and his famous charm will come in handy, that is if New Zealand has much relevance at all. New Zealand has already been pivoting in foreign policy more towards the US and less with China.

Mr Trump has his large band of ardent Maga supporters. It seems many others voted for him — or declined to vote Democrat — despite his character flaws. Politicians can win without being liked, a fact that might encourage Mr Luxon as he struggles to connect personally with the electorate.

Mr Trump called his support, in typical bombastic bragging, "the greatest political movement of all time". His success alongside the repudiation of the Democrats, though, can be seen in line with what has been happening in various Western democracies.

Central-left parties have been suffering everywhere as they alienate traditional support, including at the last New Zealand election. Even in the United Kingdom, Labour’s landslide was based on just 34% of the vote despite a bungling and divided Conservative party.

Progressive policies — seen as self-evidently honourable by the educated, academic, managerial and entertainment elites — are being rejected.

The Democrats, on the outer and because of their "broad-church" constituencies, will have difficulty securing an appealing candidate for the next presidential election.

The new-age Republicans, so far from their traditional fiscal conservative and free trade history, have focused on one man. Succession after such dominance will be something to behold. That is assuming Mr Trump does not override the Constitution and seeks to extend his presidency beyond the two-term limit.

"This will truly be the golden age of America," he proclaimed yesterday. Therein lies hope for the Democrats.

His voters have made their bed, and the US must now lie in it. An opportunity for a Democrat recovery arises when he fails to deliver and once again most Americans feel worse off.

In the meantime, everyone must hope his attitudes and policies do not cause too much damage to the climate, the international economy and the world order.