Unexpected? Well, there were some who had kept the faith — notably from this region Lawrence farmer Mark Patterson, a former list MP for his party, who ardently believed that the great Lazarus of politics, Winston Peters, could return New Zealand First to Parliament after its ousting in 2020.
Which he did on October 14 2023, taking Mr Patterson and seven colleagues back to Parliament with him.
An immense amount of work, and more than a little good fortune, vindicated that belief and saw New Zealand First crest the 5% threshold with some comfort.
Upon NZF’s return to Parliament naysayers were legion, predicting that Mr Peters would be unable to work with his coalition partner Act New Zealand’s leader David Seymour, and that NZF’s electoral melange of the confused, conspiratorial and confronted would soon fall apart.
There have been some alarms and excursions along the way — NZF’s associate health minister Casey Costello looks desperately out of her depth and Mr Peters has had the odd terse word for both Act and National.
The latter is to be expected — it is in Mr Peters’ nature to be acerbic at times — but despite some being inclined to view the slightest disagreement in catastrophic terms, the coalition is still a functioning governmental arrangement.
The former is more difficult to manage. Neither NZF, nor National, will want to readily hand Labour Ms Costello’s scalp, but the constant suspicion that there is smoke to the Opposition’s fire on Ms Costello’s handling of tobacco issues is a wearying issue. It would come as no surprise if she were to be quietly shifted sideways in a January reshuffle.
But in general terms, NZF will have few causes for alarm a year after the election. Polling — not that Mr Peters claims that he places much store in opinion polls — has NZF consistently at or above 5%, and delegates arrived in Hamilton to news that the latest Taxpayers Union/Curia poll had New Zealand First at 7.6%.
HIs rhetorical flourishes betray greater enthusiasm for implementing government policy than most politicians have, but in savaging what he terms the "woke-riddled Left" Mr Jones is keeping his party base happy and is in no small part reflecting the approach of the coalition partners, albeit that they are usually more circumspect about it.
Mr Patterson is putting in a steady shift in his rural portfolio areas, and the party’s backbench seems assiduous enough. Former Wellington mayor Andy Foster, thanks no doubt to his previous political experience, has made some thoughtful contributions in Parliament.
On Saturday Mr Peters had told party faithful that NZF was preparing to do much better in the 2026 election.
There is much water to go under the bridge before then: Mr Peters has to surrender the deputy prime ministership to Mr Seymour and the headline-grabbing fast track and regional growth policies keeping people aware of NZF will no longer be so novel.
But Mr Peters is not a man to be written off, as another party congress with NZF "at the centre of the direction of our nation’s affairs" to quote Mr Jones, amply shows.
His congress speech yesterday returned to this theme, saluting the next generation "taking this party forward to new levels of success."
New Zealand First would do so, Mr Peters said, through application of "plain common sense."
He also, with characteristic audacity, launched a blistering attack on Labour, claiming that his party was now the authentic party of the working person, knowing full well that he is in a coalition with Act NZ and National, neither exactly full of authentic working class heroes.
But there has always been a streak of conservatism in Labour’s support, a voter which has been susceptible to voting for NZF in the past and which Mr Peters has now given fair warning that he will be openly pitching for during the next two years. Labour would be naive if it did not realise that this was no idle threat.
