The polls and the pundits were predicting a National and Act election win.
There was just the question of whether they might slip a little and need New Zealand First for a parliamentary majority.
This was perhaps an outlier in its fall for National.
The 1News Verian poll had Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori totalling 54 and National and Act 58. Nonetheless, National has been slipping and the Greens steadily edging forward.
Because of the emphatic statements from New Zealand First’s Winston Peters and Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, surely Mr Peters cannot switch horses and back Labour as he did in 2017?
Therefore, a National-led government remains the heavy probability.
This is dependent on coalition negotiations. Given Mr Peters’ record, these could take a long time and be tricky.
There are also options for Act and/or New Zealand First to give National support for confidence and supply but not be part of the government.
The chance of a second election if neither National’s Christopher Luxon nor Mr Hipkins can go to the Governor-General with the ability to form the government cannot be ruled out. A hung Parliament is also not impossible.
One of the still slim ways for the left side to gain power would be for New Zealand First to slip just under 5% and be excluded from Parliament.
If Labour edges up from its about 27% rating, the Greens continue their solid showing and Te Pāti Maori sneak in an extra seat or two, we could be in for a shock.
The problem with this scenario is the gathering strength of Mr Peters.
Despite his erratic record and the difficulty knowing where he stands — apart from a yearning for yesteryear — New Zealand First has momentum.
His party is closer to overtaking Act, which is below its peak.
Mr Peters siphons disgruntled voters off Act, including many in New Zealand unhappy with ‘‘co-governance’’ and official understandings of Te Tiriti o Waitangi.
Like Act, Mr Peters beats the law-and-order drum, an issue high among the concerns of voters.
Supporters of the likes of New Zealand Loyal, the New Conservatives, Freedoms NZ and Democracy NZ have the chance to make calculated decisions.
Do they back their anti-establishment co-believers and ‘‘waste’’ their vote? Or do they go with the next best thing, Winston Peters?
David Seymour of Act will have disappointed them on occasion. Where their few percent goes could be significant in a tight election.
The Opportunities Party (Top) voters also face tough calls.
The party is relying on Raf Manji winning Ilam to drag one or two others perhaps also into Parliament, including number 3 on its list, Ben Peters, of Dunedin. Mr Manji, although a strong and popular candidate, is not favoured to win.
Voters have been bombarded with policies as the major parties endeavour to appeal to slices of the electorate.
There have also been controversies on GST off fresh fruit and vegetables, foreign buyers tax income, tax cuts and, of course, the relationships between Mr Peters, Mr Luxon and Mr
Seymour.
This is against the background of inflation and the ‘‘cost of living’’ crisis, the big problems in infrastructure and the mood for change.
But voters, when it comes to the privacy of the polling booth, rely most of all on emotion, instinct and their fundamental political alignment.
They sometimes also diverge from what they tell the pollsters. While in 2017 the average of late polls was reasonably accurate, 2020 was different.
A late surge for Labour and a late collapse for National substantially boosted the size of the Labour win.
Tomorrow night will be far closer than anticipated a month ago.
Uncertainty over the balance in Parliament has grown despite the leadership of government still being National’s to lose.
And after that? We could be in for a protracted period of indecision as coalition talks proceed.
