Division in Australia

Australia's Voice to Parliament referendum looks to be doomed. The vote, on October 14, the same day as New Zealand’s general election, seeks a simple yes or no on general statements.

It includes: "To alter the constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. Do you approve this proposed alteration?"

The Voice would "make representations to the Parliament and the Executive Government of the Commonwealth on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples".

Parliament itself would pass laws on the "composition, functions, powers and procedures" of the Voice.

The referendum needs a "double majority" — a majority across the whole country and more than half the states (four of the six) in favour — for constitutional change.

It was always going to be a big ask. And, as time has gone on, the Yes vote has weakened and the No vote strengthened. A year ago, poll figures suggesting Yes were at 64% and No 36%. Now, Yes has dropped to 43% and No has risen to 57%. Only Tasmania among the states retains a Yes majority.

The plight of First Nations peoples is dire. Some of the awful statistics are even getting worse.

Few peoples in the world have suffered more from the advent of the modern world and from colonisation. Few were treated as badly.

In more recent times, even policies developed with the best will in the world have struggled to make positive impacts.

There have been various representative bodies set up that have made a limited impact and been disestablished.

The idea with the Voice, which grew from the 2017 Uluru statement Voice, Treaty and Truth, was that a body entrenched in the constitution would advise the government. If indigenous people had more of a say in what happened to them, their lives would improve.

Labor Prime Minister Antony Albanese picked up Voice proposals and pushed ahead with the vote.

However, since 1901 only eight of 44 proposed constitutional amendments have passed, and none in recent decades. The vote on becoming a republic was lost because support in principle split on the type of republic.

The referendum needed much higher support even a year ago to have any chance.

New Zealand’s experience with a flag change was similarly lost when it came to the design. As with the Voice vote, the matter became partisan, further cutting potential support.

It was determined, as it should be, that the Voice vote be kept general. Parliament would pick up the subsequent details. There is a 2021 plan it could follow.

This has not stopped the Liberals from calling for more details and muddying the water.

Yes backers, including the Prime Minister, seem to argue both that an advisory body will not be too threatening and that it would make a big difference.

People during a "Walk For YES" event in Sydney, Australia, on September 17, 2023. PHOTO: GETTY...
People during a "Walk For YES" event in Sydney, Australia, on September 17, 2023. PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
Supporters gathered in centres around Australia over the weekend in rallies that were substantial but hardly overwhelming.

Some of the opposition sees the Voice as dangerous and vague and dividing the country and its people by race. Others argue the Voice will be captured by First Nations elite and do little to tackle the real problems.

There are fears that making representations to the "Executive Government of the Commonwealth" is too broad and would bog down Government at all levels.

There are also those, including a significant First Nations minority, who reject the Voice as being gutless and insufficient. Radicals claim it would be just an "advisory body to the colonial system". There is a demand for an aboriginal parliament.

Other First Nations leaders see the Voice as at least a first step.

Generally, progressives swarm behind the Voice, believing much of the opposition is racist.

Unsurprisingly and sadly, the referendum has become divisive. Its likely failure will leave further scars in an increasingly polarised Australia.