There goes the entire New Zealand army, Clive James quipped.
While that might have been about 30 years ago, the satire still bites. This country’s armed forces, then in a sorry state, have degraded further.
Meanwhile, the so-called benign strategic environment of the early 2000s has been blown up, if it ever existed.
A new world disorder is emerging as United States President Donald Trump upends traditional relationships and support. Chinese warships conduct live firing in the Tasman Sea, and China deals secretly with New Zealand "realm" country the Cook Islands. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is well into its fourth year.
Defence Minister Judith Collins warns "we cannot hide at the end of the world any more". She signals a "big budget" investment in defence.
Major players agree. Defence spending must be raised from under 1% of GDP towards 2% or even more. That remains modest even compared with where spending-laggard Europe is heading.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon also told a leading geopolitical conference in India that prosperity relied on greater defence spending and that this expenditure would occur.
Against this background came a puzzling announcement. The defence force would lose 374 civilian roles. This is on top of 145 civilian workers taking redundancy last year.
A total of 667 roles would be disestablished, and 293 created. Because 287 of the roles to go are vacant, the present headcount would drop by about 80.
Those vacancies speak to the severe recruitment and retention problems in the Defence Force.
According to its 2024 annual report, the force had 15,383 personnel, of whom 3294 were civilian staff. Operating expenditure was $3.595 billion.
"Ultimately," Mr Luxon said, "they’re [the cuts] decisions for the Defence Force to make sure that they’re actually fit for purpose."
Surely, it would make more sense to restructure after the capability plan has been announced.
Civilian roles are palpably important. IT, for example, is central to the effective functioning of every business, let alone defence. Yet, IT is among the areas being sliced. Engineering and other experts allow uniform staff to do their core jobs. Armies have always run on far more than just frontline soldiers.
Blamed is a $360 million deficit in defence spending.
The restructuring could, of course, be a means to clear some decks. Organisations, whether they admit it or not, use restructuring not just to redefine roles but also as an opportunity to refresh staff.
The Defence Force will need to be nimble and adaptable as a revolution in warfare unfolds. Equipment and weapons are staggeringly expensive and can rapidly become obsolete.
Drones have quickly taken off, as the war in Ukraine has shown. Tanks are now far more vulnerable. Technology has periodically overturned the methods and means of wars - from cavalry, longbows, rifles, machine guns, tanks, planes and so on.
It is always important to be ready for today’s and tomorrow’s challenges, not be prepared to fight yesterday’s battles with antiquated equipment and tactics.
AI brings further uncertainty and greater vulnerability for those without the resources to harness its power. Technology and cyber warfare are shrinking the protection of distance that helped protect this country.
New Zealand must undertake a steady and sustainable rebuild of its creaking armed forces, complementing our only direct ally, Australia. The dire state cannot be turned around quickly. But it must be done consistently and determinedly.
As Ms Collins said: "We clearly need to step up our game".
Let us hope the planned cuts are not shortsighted. Let us hope Defence will not lose important staff through what could be a premature and misguided restructuring.
