They received only 2.6% of the party vote, Mr Peters went to ground and key members left.
Only Mr Peters’ extraordinary ability to come back from apparently hopeless positions made observers hedge their bets.
He just made it back three years later and by 2017 held the balance of power again. Twice he has been deputy prime minister.
Mr Peters first entered Parliament at the end of the 1970s and is now aged 77.
Three years ago, he had lost lustre and energy. Yet, at the comeback New Zealand First conference in Christchurch last weekend and in media interviews yesterday morning he was back on form — smart with his answers and replete with catchy slogans.
Mr Peters is sometimes tricky to position on traditional political spectrums. Most place him in the centre.
He comes from former prime minister Robert Muldoon's school of politics. A coherent ideology is not required nor underlying principles. What matters is what will win votes.
Criticism of immigration has been among his basics. This time more of the focus is on “separatism”.
Like any effective populist, Mr Peters has always understood the electorate's fears. He plays to these with phrases that resonate. “Seeds of apartheid” are being scattered through New Zealand’s laws.
This is ground already taken by another leader and party, Act. Whether Mr Peters and sidekick Shane Jones can carve away much of Act’s support will be crucial to New Zealand First clearing the 5% hurdle and making it back in 2023.
The appeal of such policies should not be underestimated, even among many sympathetic to the Māori and Māori language renaissance. This appeal is especially among older New Zealanders brought up in another era.
Remember the referendums on Māori wards in a handful of district councils — provisions since eliminated by Labour. Voters in each case voted against this “separatism”.
Both New Zealand First and Act’s David Seymour are leaders with Māori whakapapa, making it easier for them to express views widely labelled racist in 2022. Mr Jones is in a stronger position as a te reo speaker.
He, too, has a telling turn of phrase, including about his nephews on their couches.
Mr Peters has always had an appealing charm to many, a potentially dangerous trait. Others, however, look at his history, his litigiousness, questions on party donations and his inconsistencies and they are appalled.
He, like former United States president Donald Trump, is also an expert at blaming the media — ironically the source of much of their publicity.
Support for New Zealand First has been quietly building of late, despite the decimating of 2020. Kantar-1News polls have the party about 3% and a recent Talbot-Mills poll figure was 4.4%.
Inevitably, after the unusual Covid election, many who voted Labour will be looking elsewhere. New Zealand First provides a more centrist position than Act. It is also more socially conservative.
Mr Peters, as he did at the weekend, will play the “handbrake” card, claiming he would be able to modify the excesses of a Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Government or an Act-National combination.
It is clear he played that role when in Government from 2017, in several cases saving Labour’s popularity from itself.
What is less evident is whether Mr Peters will be able to pull off another resurrection miracle and become kingmaker again.
Will he appeal sufficiently to younger New Zealanders, or will he be too much of a stale fossil? Will he be seen as the voice of common sense, or as a figure set on dividing New Zealanders?
