Prime Minister John Key's seemingly unencumbered run back to the ninth floor of the Beehive on Saturday has been suddenly derailed by two unexpected events - a cup of tea and the rise again of New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.
Mr Key has received unprecedented public support throughout his three years at the top.
While he is widely expected to retain the top job at the election on Saturday, he has shown in the past two weeks an inability to deal with issues that sideswipe him.
Act New Zealand almost begged Mr Key to have a cup of tea with its Epsom candidate John Banks, the former mayor of Auckland and the man who replaced hugely popular local MP and dumped Act leader Rodney Hide.
Mr Key finally obliged but has since been immersed in controversy after a freelance cameraman recorded the conversation and passed the recording on to the Herald on Sunday.
Mr Key laid a complaint with the police about the matter but has been dogged on the campaign trail by media questions on what he talked about with Mr Banks and why he would not agree to release the recording.
It is widely believed Mr Key made disparaging remarks about New Zealand First supporters, saying they were dying off, leaving party leader Winston Peters without support.
Mr Peters seized on that allegation and has soared in public opinion polls by continually mentioning it in speeches and interviews.
On Monday, Mr Key warned voters a vote for Mr Peters would mean the possibility of another election within months of Saturday as a vote for Mr Peters would mean instability.
That gave Mr Peters, who has shown considerable political astuteness since he was first elected in controversial circumstances in 1979 after a recount in Hunua, another chance in the headlines.
New Zealand First could work with any minority government but should not be taken for granted, he said in response to Mr Key. Mr Key knows Mr Peters has never been far away from the controversial headlines and attempted to remind voters of that during this week.
Suddenly, the focus had switched from a head-to-head National and Labour campaign to the smaller parties of New Zealand First and the Greens.
Even United Future leader Peter Dunne, his party's sole voice in Parliament, indicated he could be the one to save National from having to deal with Mr Peters.
At the start of the campaign, Labour made the decision to focus on policy not personalities. But given that leader Phil Goff's performance is analysed constantly by commentators in all forms of media, that appears to have been a mistake.
Mr Goff's face does not appear on any Labour billboards except in his own electorate of Mt Roskill. He does feature in the party's closing campaign broadcast but so do three men named as possible successors if Labour does badly on Saturday.
They are the three Davids - Cunliffe, Parker and Shearer.
Mr Goff has been caught out several times by his inability to give figures for Labour's policies, despite party spokesmen saying the figures were available before The Press debate, where Mr Key scored by calling out "show me the money".
Mr Goff showed an improvement in that debate but, by the end of it, Labour strategists were shaking their heads in dismay.
Labour insiders said the decision to keep Mr Goff off the hoardings was deliberate because if the leader's brand went "toxic" the campaign would still not be derailed.
They pointed at Mr Key's Epsom meltdown as an example of that, and such a turnaround could just as easily have been Labour's fate over Mr Goff's ignorance of policy costs.
Green Party co-leader Russel Norman has grown in this campaign. He has distanced himself from the more radical side of the Green movement and has been introducing economic policies around superannuation and small and medium-sized businesses that could be adopted by a Key-led government without too much difficulty.
The other co-leader, Metiria Turei, has been active in the North Island, particularly around Auckland where Green campaigners are not as strong on the ground as in some other areas. Her public profile has not been as high in this election as it was in 2008.
Mr Dunne faces a battle to retain his Ohariu seat on Saturday, with a strong challenge coming from Labour list MP Charles Chauvel. If Mr Dunne does finally run out of support, National will lose an ally in fiscal conservatism.
Maori Party co-leaders Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia seem assured of retaining their seats of Tamaki Makaurau and Te Tai Hauauru respectively.
Dr Sharples is up against Labour list MP Shane Jones, who was seen as having a good chance of winning. But Dr Sharples ties in the Auckland area seat are deep and he has been freed up to campaign in other seats during the campaign.
Mrs Turia has indicated she might not go the full term of Parliament, an odd decision to make public just before the election. However, the prospect of costing the country a by-election does not seem to have counted against her.
Mana Party leader Hone Harawira is facing a challenge from Labour's Kelvin Davies for the Te Tai Tokerau seat. Mr Harawira retained the seat he won as a Maori Party candidate in 2008 in the by-election after he resigned and formed the Mana Party.
His outbursts are largely ignored by the mainstream media but, if he wins, he could possibly take into Parliament Annette Sykes, John Minto and Sue Bradford.
Act New Zealand leader Don Brash seems doomed yet again to lead a party to defeat in a general election. While he took National to a close second in 2005, support for Act has slumped since he dumped his one-time friend Mr Hide as leader and installed himself in the top job.
Dr Brash seems politically naive, despite his wide experience as a former governor of the Reserve Bank. All of Act's MPs in the last Parliament have either resigned or been dumped and that has not proved popular with voters.
If Mr Banks, who many believe is the party leader, fails to win in Epsom, Act will spend three years in the wilderness, possibly longer. Act is being portrayed as a party of extremes.
The performance of the leaders has led the campaign debate in 2011. Policies have been released by everyone, but the focus of many voters has been on how well the leaders perform in public.
How they rated
John Key
The good: The single-handed fronting of National's campaign for re-election.
The bad: Showed signs of stress under pressure, despite his Wall Street banking background.
Phil Goff
The good: Unfailingly polite and enthusiastic, even when confronted with constant talk of his demise as leader on Saturday.
The bad: Got off message and lost at least a week talking about things that did not matter.
Winston Peters
The good: Campaigned tirelessly in small to large centres, under the radar of both Labour and National.
The bad: His reputation precedes him.
Russel Norman
The good: Moved the debate towards green economics.
The bad: Moved the parliamentary wing away from its grassroots supporters.
Metiria Turei
The good: Remains focused on the things that matter to her: helping children out of poverty and providing training opportunities for solo parents.
The bad: Kept her profile too low in the campaign.
Pita Sharples
The good: Used the past three years to retain and build on his already strong community links.
The bad: Despite claims to the contrary, he has not promoted a successor despite the fact that it will be his last term if he wins.
Tariana Turia
The good: Remains true to the reasons she left the Labour Party.
The bad: Might not last a full term, costing the country a by-election. No succession plan seems obvious.
Peter Dunne
The good: Has provided stable support for both Labour and National administrations.
The bad: Has been forced to campaign hard in his electorate, at the expense of the party vote.
Hone Harawira
The good: Stood by his principles of representing the Maori underclass.
The bad: Outbursts which cause wide offence and the similar outbursts of his mother, Titiwhai Harawira, who has been accused of directing her son.
Don Brash
The good: Believed his own publicity only he could lead Act New Zealand back to its roots.
The bad: Failed to make an impression and had to watch the party's popularity plunge in Epsom and the rest of the country.