Opinion: Goff starts strongly but worm turns for Key

Labour leader, Phil Goff, during last night's debate.
Labour leader, Phil Goff, during last night's debate.
Labour leader Phil Goff may regret choosing asset sales as his main issue for the last week of the election campaign. The issue barely registered last night with both the home and studio audiences during the Decision 11 TV3 leaders' debate.

Mr Goff had the Roy Morgan Reactor, commonly called "the worm", dancing in positive territory every time he talked in the first quarter of the debate, while Prime Minister and National Party leader John Key was consistently tracking at neutral or negative territory.

Every time Mr Goff talked about the poor, homeless and helpless, the worm soared. Every time Mr Key opened his mouth, the worm dropped sharply.

But the minute the two leaders started talking about asset sales, the home audience lost interest.

The same pattern emerged with the studio audience. Mr Key could have been in dangerous territory on asset sales, but the issue did not resonate.

Strangely, the worm disappeared at crucial times - particularly during the debate on MMP and possible coalition deals. But the one time it did work was when the two leaders talked about New Zealand First leader Winston Peters. Both the home and studio audiences reacted negatively to any mention of Mr Peters.

Mr Goff would not rule out working with Mr Peters if he met Labour's criteria for a stable government. That was not popular.

Mr Key got a better response when he flatly ruled out working with Mr Peters.

Mr Goff ruled out working with Mana Party leader Hone Harawira, shortening the odds of Labour's being able to form the next government.

Mr Key got a dig in by calling the concept of Mr Peters providing stability "comedy central" given he had been sacked by two prime ministers and stood down by one.

Mr Goff got his best response in the third segment of the debate when he said voters should support their favoured Epsom candidate with both votes on Saturday and Mr Key did well by saying the same thing should happen in both Ohariu and Epsom. He was not instructing voters to split their vote but he had proved he could work with Act, United Future leader Peter Dunne and the Maori Party.

Mr Goff dominated the first 19 minutes of the debate but Mr Key came home strongly and as last images matter in the campaign, he won last night's encounter.

John Campbell proved to be a masterful moderator, keeping the two men on task and on subject.

The final debate between the two leaders will screen on TV One tomorrow night.

 

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