As part of the ANZ Agri-Focus, Mr Bagrie said dairy cash flow forecasts continued to flag continued financial stress into 2017, which would weigh on buyer expectations.
The flipside was elevated vendor expectations, which usually took a while to adjust, confidence in the medium-term outlook, interest rates at record lows, a resilient milk supply productivity story and cost efficiency gains.
At an aggregate level, the latest Real Estate Institute data painted a picture of relative calm, he said.‘‘But under the surface, there are a number of cross currents.''The latest activity data showed total turnover had improved in recent months and was running above the same time last year, as well as 15% above the 10-year average.
Average prices, while back slightly on the same period last year, had been relatively stable and were still 20% above the 10-year average, Mr Bagrie said.
The high level aggregates hid the underlying cross currents. Year-to-date turnover for dairy properties in 2015-16 was lower, and average prices were back 10% to 15% over the previous corresponding period.
The latest transactions at the end of 2015 showed an improvement in prices. Turnover was higher in the more expensive regions of the Waikato and Taranaki.
Outside dairying, year-to-date turnover in 2015-16 of all other farm types had been higher - apart from grazing, which fell 7%, he said.
Price direction was more mixed. Finishing and arable prices were down, although both were off very elevated levels.‘‘This seems to be part compositional, in terms of where sales are occurring, as well as some limited knock-on impact from soft dairy prices to other supporting land uses, such as supplementary feed and grazing.''Arable properties appeared to have seen a bigger knock-on impact from lower domestic grain prices and dairy support revenues.
Grazing property prices remained in the recent range of $16,000 to $17,000 a hectare, matching the highs seen over the past last couple of years. Monthly turnover remained around the 10-year average.
While sheepmeat prices and dairy support activities were applying some pressure to budgets, the offset was better beef, wool and deer revenues, Mr Bagrie said.
Generally stable earnings prospects, combined with other supportive factors such as low interest rates, were behind the firm prices.
