February 24 marked three years since Russia began its full-scale war against Ukraine and Ukrainians, and 11 years since it invaded Crimea and Donbass.
In the days since, an avalanche of related developments has rocked the global security order on which New Zealand relies so heavily.
There was the unprecedented, televised exchange between United States President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (in his third language), and Vice-president JD Vance, complete with state dinners uneaten and mineral deals unsigned. That was followed almost immediately by the announcement of a "100-year partnership" between the United Kingdom and Ukraine.
Then earlier this week, the heads of 18 countries, mostly European but notably including Canada and Turkey, met as a "coalition of the willing", seeking to better co-operate in their increased support of Ukraine.
And in the meantime, Russian President Vladimir Putin killed another seven civilians in missile attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv residential areas: one more war crime in a list of thousands.
The first three of these events challenge our understanding of the rapidly evolving global security order. Whether we like it or not, they require New Zealand and New Zealanders to take a close look at ourselves and our motivations and make some important decisions for our future.
To do this, we should first consider why Ukraine’s fight for survival is relevant to New Zealand. This war was the wholesale invasion of a sovereign state few of us thought we would see in our lifetimes, complete with barbarism on a scale few of us can imagine.
At the outset, very few believed it would be possible for Ukraine to withstand invasion by the world’s second-largest military. It was meant to be over in a week. But for three years, Ukraine has continued to defend itself, along with global democracy and international security.
In the months leading up to the invasion, there was plenty of self-soothing talk: war was so "irrational as to be impossible". Instead, we were given a stark reminder of the probability of violence in the absence of a strong global order acting as a deterrent.
Russia’s naked use of force, particularly its deliberate targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure, gives New Zealanders an opportunity to ponder what we value as individuals and as one of the world’s most successful, but also most isolated, liberal democracies. We should take a moment to acknowledge that the space for that reflection is provided by the courage, resilience and essential goodness of the Ukrainian citizens and soldiers.
They have demonstrated a form of indomitable will and personal sacrifice not often seen outside history books. As Major General (retired) Mick Ryan, of Australia, put it, whatever revulsion we might feel watching the Russians barbarically seek to eradicate an entire people and their culture, "there is a sense of privilege in having been able to observe such a rare demonstration of uncommon valour by an entire nation".
Ukrainians believe they are fighting for their existence, but also for the idea that democracy, freedom and self-determination matter. The belief that one country cannot simply invade another and subjugate its people.
If one falls, they believe others will follow. In that way, the Ukrainians are fighting for us here in New Zealand too.
We sometimes forget that we are a small country isolated at the bottom of the Pacific with vast resources. Yet we have virtually no defensive capability and few military alliances.
We are proudly independent, but we are also alone, and we rely entirely on the global order for our security and the essentials of life. To take only one example, harvesting food and transporting it to tables is entirely reliant on diesel, a commodity we keep in strikingly short reserve. There is no alternative option, and we cannot produce it ourselves.
Blockading shipments for only a few weeks would have catastrophic consequences. The idea that someone would try it may seem implausible, but our confidence that something similar would never happen to us, that somehow the world would never allow it, is a reflection of how strong the global rules-based order has been during our lifetimes. That security erodes every day Russia continues its war.
That point seems particularly relevant this month, as New Zealand and Australian commercial aeroplanes are being redirected to avoid unscheduled live-fire exercises by Chinese warships in the Tasman Sea.
New Zealand can no longer pretend we are immune, and we should be doing all we can to shore up the international rules-based order before it fractures.
That starts with supporting Ukraine.
To date, New Zealand has provided aid and support which has been extremely welcome. We have sent humanitarian supplies and provided military training to Ukrainian troops and have introduced sanctions against Putin’s supporters (a first for New Zealand).
Individual New Zealanders have made extraordinary humanitarian efforts on the ground, often in incredibly dangerous conditions, providing the means to save thousands of civilians trapped and injured near the front lines. And our government continues to contribute aid and military training on behalf of all New Zealanders. That help is gratefully received, even as more is requested.
Ukraine has repeated a single message since invasion: "Give us the tools and we will finish the job ourselves", but they have also been absolutely clear that they are entirely reliant on external military aid for survival.
It is support from the international community that keeps Ukraine free. Everything New Zealand sends helps, all of it is valued.
Our government responded to recent developments with a statement that "New Zealand remains steadfast in its support for Ukraine as it defends itself in a war that Russia started". This declaration is particularly important at this time, and I am proud that we have made it, but we can and should go further, giving Ukraine more than the bare minimum to stay in the fight.
We have decommissioned military equipment that is no longer of any use here, yet could be incredibly valuable on the front line where supplies are so short. And we have the ability to dedicate vastly more training and humanitarian resources.
Money is tight at home, but this is an investment in our own future. We ignore the impacts of a Ukrainian loss at our personal peril.
As peace deals begin to be discussed, Ukraine must be in a position to negotiate a lasting and fair peace, one which does not reward Russia for its egregious brutality. New Zealand has an outsized voice and influence on the global stage, and we should use it now to support that aim.
It may not be obvious, but our support is valuable, it is particularly important at this time and it is greatly appreciated. It is also in our own long-term interests.
■ Patrick Gamble is the honorary consul of Ukraine to New Zealand.
