The death of more than 8000 New Zealanders in an influenza pandemic 90 years ago was a stark reminder of the threat such pandemics still posed, University of Otago Associate Prof Michael Baker said.
The 1918 pandemic peaked in New Zealand during "Black November", Prof Baker, of the university's Wellington campus, said.
The pandemic caused the "the worst single human health disaster in recorded New Zealand history," Prof Baker and his Wellington colleague, Dr Nick Wilson, said in an article in the latest New Zealand Medical Journal.
Prof Baker gave a talk in Dunedin this week on "border control for small island nations to prevent or delay pandemic influenza", based on research by himself, Dr Wilson, and others.
In adopting a "keep-it-out" strategy, New Zealand enjoyed some advantages as an island nation somewhat isolated from the most likely future source of a pandemic, in Asia, and there had been "high-quality planning" by the Ministry of Health, Prof Baker said in an interview.
A pandemic was likely to cause a big voluntary drop in international air travel, cutting usual passenger numbers by about 80%.
Computer-modelling research undertaken by the university-based Pandemic Influenza Research Group New Zealand showed that imposing further border restrictions, and quarantining for up to nine days those people who had to enter the country, would provide significant further protection, he said.
Prof Baker, who is convener of the pandemic research group, gave his talk during this week's inaugural conference of the university's recently established Otago International Health Network.
Maintaining a strict maritime quarantine meant American Samoa escaped without a single pandemic-related death in 1918, but in Western Samoa, which lacked such tight restrictions, the national death toll was about 22%, involving more than 7500 deaths.
