Rugby: Highlanders' destiny in their own hands

The Highlanders' destiny in the Super 15 is in their own hands. Photo Getty
The Highlanders' destiny in the Super 15 is in their own hands. Photo Getty

It would be easier to steal food off the plate of Kim Dotcom than pick the teams which will make it through to the playoffs in Super rugby. Steve Hepburn looks at which five New Zealand teams may survive to see some finals action, and assesses the Highlanders' chances.

If this is a golf tournament, the leaders are just about to walk on to the 15th tee.

It is time to stare down each other, and the best man - or team - will be left standing.

Are the Highlanders going to walk tall and claim their first playoff berth in 12 years?

Or are they going to collapse like Jean van de Valde at the 1999 British Open, or choke like Greg Norman at the 1996 Masters?

The Highlanders have four games left and destiny is in their hands.

Last year, the sixth team to make the playoffs - the Cheetahs - made it with 54 points, including 10 wins. But they gained eight points through byes, which are no longer given.

With eight teams - four of them New Zealand sides - within six points of each other, the permutations are endless.

The Highlanders have 36 points, one behind the Crusaders and tied with the Hurricanes.

One point behind are the Chiefs.

Back on 26 points are the Blues, with coach John Kirwan still talking about the playoffs.

But it is hard to see Kirwan's side making the finals as two of its remaining four games are away, and the Blues travel about as well as a toddler in the back seat going through Skippers Canyon after eating a tub of ice cream.

The Hurricanes are still a threat but have played one game more than anyone else.

They are going to be twiddling their thumbs in the last round, which is not a great position in which to be.

They can end the Blues' dream this week, but the two games which follow will decide their season.

The Chiefs face a crucial match this weekend against the Waratahs in New Plymouth.

If they lose, and the Hurricanes, Highlanders and Crusaders all win, there could be daylight between the Chiefs and the other three sides.

The Crusaders have the Force at home on Friday and should win that, but a tricky trip to the capital, where they have won only once in five years, follows.

They then have the Blues at home - tick the win column there - and finish with the Highlanders in Christchurch.

As for the Highlanders, it is imperative they beat the Reds this Friday night in Brisbane.

At this stage of the season, a slip-up against a lowly side simply must not happen.

A win with a bonus point could put the Highlanders into the lead in the New Zealand conference going into the three-week break.

Coming off that, they face the Chiefs at home on June 27.

The Chiefs will have players back from injury but this is a match the Highlanders must and can win. Any team aspiring to do well needs to win its home games.

If the Highlanders enter the final two games on something like 45 points, that could - and this is a big could - be enough to see finals action for the first time since 2002.

That is assuming the Chiefs lose to the Waratahs, the Blues beat the Hurricanes, the Force and the Crusaders draw 9-9, the Hurricanes lose to the Crusaders but beat the Chiefs, the Blues somehow beat the Crusaders, the Chiefs beat the Blues but do not score a try ... and so on.

Incidentally, if teams are tied on points at the end of the final round, the side with more wins goes through.

If that does not separate teams, points differential will decide.

stephen.hepburn@odt.co.nz

 


NZ conference
The standings

 

               Played         Pts

Crusaders         12          37

Hurricanes        13          36

 Highlanders     12          36

Chiefs                12          35

Blues                 12          26

 

Games left

Crusaders: Force (home), Hurricanes (away), Blues (home), Highlanders (home).

Hurricanes: Blues (away), Crusaders (home), Chiefs (away), bye.

Highlanders: Reds (away), Chiefs (home), Waratahs (away), Crusaders (away).

Chiefs: Waratahs (home), Highlanders (away), Hurricanes (home), Blues (away).

Blues: Hurricanes (home), Force (away), Crusaders (away), Chiefs (home).


 

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