Wellington takes on Counties-Manukau in Pukekohe tonight, in a competition which has stayed basically the same for the past three years.
The national competition, begun in 1976, has taken many forms and shapes. It seemed as if every year there would be a change.
But for the past three years, the premiership and the championship, with seven teams in each, have basically stayed the same, and have worked pretty well.
The current format has a few fish-hooks. Not everyone plays everyone, and teams can finish fourth in the championship - in effect, the 11th best team in the country - and still play in a semifinal.
But most unions accept the competition for what it has become: playing for provincial pride and showcasing players for the Super 15.
This year, there has been a minor tweaking. Tuesday night games have been dropped and teams will play just one Wednesday game each.
The key to this competition, because it is so condensed, is to get on a roll and maintain that. Playing in spring, the grounds are a bit better, so the rugby is more free-flowing.
As for who is going to grab the silverware, Canterbury has won the competition for the past five years and it would be a brave man to bet against that side. Canterbury has plenty of Super 15 players to pick from and quality throughout the team.
New coach Scott Robertson will have the likes of Andy Ellis, Ryan Crotty and George Whitelock - the only player to play in all five finals - to call on, and experience is a vital ingredient in winning the title.
Wellington looms as a serious challenger. The team from the capital has talent to burn and a great loose forward trio in Victor Vito and All Blacks in waiting Brad Shields and Ardie Savea. Much will depend on its inside back division.
Auckland and Taranaki made the semifinals last year and should do so again.
Auckland won a few close games last year but and looks a tad light in the tight five. Taranaki has good depth - thanks to a good chequebook - but is also missing some experienced heads in the engineroom.
It is hard to see any of the other three sides which make up the premiership - Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Counties-Manukau - breaking into the top four, and Waikato will be focused on retaining the Ranfurly Shield.
As for the championship, every side is in with a chance.
Otago and Hawkes Bay look the leading contenders but it is hard to judge.
Hawkes Bay has a few new faces, including Alby Mathewson and Ged Robinson, while Otago has most of its side back from last year and experienced lock Tom Donnelly returns.
Southland may come back into the reckoning if everyone can stay on the paddock.
The big aim for the championship sides is to beat premiership teams. Last season, they could only win four games in the cross-division battles.
Steve Hepburn's assessment of the 14 teams in the ITM Cup
Premiership
CANTERBURY
Last year: Champion.
Coach: Scott Robertson (replaces Tabai Matson).
Captain: George Whitelock.
Key forward: Loose forward Luke Whitelock.
Key back: Halfback Andy Ellis.
Prediction: Finalist.
The oil: Should again be in the hunt. Much will depend on how tired players are from the Super 15. Robbie Fruean will be missed.
AUCKLAND
Last year: Finalist.
Coach: Wayne Pivac (second year).
Captain: Luke Braid.
Key forward: Hooker Tom McCartney.
Key back: Halfback Piri Weepu.
Prediction: Semifinalist.
The oil: Getting Weepu in the side is a bonus but he is only as good as those around him. Will miss point-scoring machine Gareth Anscombe.
WELLINGTON
Last year: Semifinalist.
Coach: Chris Boyd (second year).
Captain: Jeremy Thrush.
Key forward: Loose forward Victor Vito.
Key back: First five-eighth Lima Sopoaga.
Prediction: Champion.
The oil: Too much talent not to succeed. Adequate tight five, outstanding loose forwards and good backs should see the men from the capital near the top. The only issue is whether anyone will turn up to watch.
TARANAKI
Last year: SemifinalsCoach: Colin Cooper (fourth year).
Captain: Kane Barrett.
Key forward: Lock James Broadhurst.
Key back: Fullback Andre Taylor.
Prediction: Semifinalist.
The oil: Plenty of Super 15 players but may lack a quality No 10 and will miss experienced lock Craig Clarke.
WAIKATO
Last year: Fifth.
Coach: John Walters (replaces Chris Gibbes).
Captain: Matt vant Leven.
Key forward: Hooker Brayden Mitchell.
Key back: Fullback Trent Renata.
Prediction: Sixth.
The oil: Winds of change have blown through the Mooloos. The side has lost plenty of experience and will need its top players to stay on the field.
BAY OF PLENTY
Last year: Sixth.
Coach: Kevin Schuler (second year).
Captain: Tanerau Latimer.
Key forward: Lock Cullum Retallick.
Key back: Halfback Samisoni Fisilau.
Prediction: Seventh.
The oil: Has lost a raft of players although still has some proven performers at provincial level. Plenty of southern connections in the side with the likes of Chris Noakes, Brett Mather and Kendrick Lynn turning out for the Steamers.
COUNTIES-MANUKAU
Last year: Won championship.
Coach: Tana Umaga (second year).
Captain: Fritz Lee.
Key forward: Loose forward Adam Cathcart.
Key back: First five-eighth Braden Kerr.
Prediction: Fifth.
The oil: A few key men are out through injury but there is enough spirit and talent to make an impact.
Championship
HAWKES BAY
Last year: Relegated from premiership.
Coach: Craig Philpott (second year).
Captain: Mike Coman.
Key forward: Hooker Ged Robinson.
Key back: Halfback Alby Mathewson.
Prediction: Champion.
The oil: Had a clean-out after a disappointing season last year. Hawkes Bay has some top players in key areas and Zac Guildford will be looking for a big season.
OTAGO
Last year: Finalist.
Coach: Tony Brown (second year).
Captain: Paul Grant.
Key forward: Hooker Liam Coltman.
Key back: First five-eighth Hayden Parker.
Prediction: Finalist.
The oil: Otago will again look to run the ball from all corners. Has some Super 15 players in vital positions.
TASMAN
Last year: Semifinalist.
Coach: Kieran Keane (fourth year).
Captain: Shane Christie.
Key forward: Hooker Quinten Macdonald.
Key back: First five-eighth Hayden Cripps.
Prediction: Fifth.
The oil: Will never die wondering. There is some talent in the forwards but the backline is missing midfielder Andrew Goodman and winger Peter Betham.
SOUTHLAND
Last year: Semifinalist.
Coach: David Henderson (third as head coach).
Captain: Jamie Mackintosh.
Key forward: Flanker John Hardie.
Key back: Utility Robbie Robinson.
Prediction: Semifinalist.
The oil: Plenty of experience and some promising newcomers. Must get off to a good start. Like every team, will struggle if injuries crop up.
NORTHLAND
Last year: Fifth.
Coach: Derren Whitcombe (replaces Adriaan Ferris).
Captain: Rene Ranger.
Key forward: No 8 Jake Paringatai.
Key back: Ranger.
Prediction: Sixth.
The oil: Much will depend on Ranger and his ability to sniff out chances. Fijian flyer Rupeni Caucaunibuca is back, but who knows how he will perform.
MANAWATU
Last year: Sixth.
Coach: Jason O'Halloran (second year).
Captain: Nick Crosswell.
Key forward: Lock Mike Fitzgerald.
Key back: Centre Jason Emery.
Prediction: Seventh.
The oil: Forced to look within, the Turbos have some class players but may lack the overall quality against the bigger sides. Always hard to beat at home.
NORTH HARBOUR
Last year: Seventh.
Coach: Liam Barry (third year).
Captain: James Parsons.
Key forward: Prop Ben Afeaki.
Key back: Halfback Bryn Hall.
Prediction: Semifinalist.
The oil: The only way is up for Harbour, after winning only one game last year. Relying on local talent and letting go some under-achievers should help.
Ten questions for the ITM Cup
1. Can anyone stop Canterbury?
2. Does Canterbury still have enough depth to withstand the challenge from the likes of Wellington and Auckland?
3. Will the 56-year wait end for Otago in the Ranfurly Shield?
4. Will Otago even get a challenge, or will Northland beat Waikato on Saturday night?
5. With all the players in Auckland rugby, how does Orene Ai'i still make the Auckland squad?
6. Whatever happened to Tony Fenner?
7. What are the chances of Counties-Manukau going straight back down to the championship?
8. And Hawkes Bay going straight back up?
9. Are Canterbury, Auckland and Wellington a step ahead of the other 11 unions?
10. Should it be a premiership with three teams and a championship with 11 teams?
Three players to watch
1. Tevita Li (North Harbour) - Still at Massey High School, this left winger is seriously quick.
2. Carl Axtens (Bay of Plenty) - Went to the same school as Sam Cane but his career has plateaued as Cane's has taken off. The big No 8 needs an industrious year.
3. Rupeni Caucaunibuca (Northland) - If he is half the player he was in 2003, stadiums will be packed out. Unfortunately, the only thing that will be packed out will be the jersey around his stomach. A few kilos heavier than a decade ago and likely to be living off past glory.
Three players inmake-or-break years
1. Lima Sopoaga (Wellington) - Needs to stay on the field, kick well, and lead Wellington to the title. Then do the same for the Highlanders.
2. Willie Ripia (Bay of Plenty) - May not even get on the paddock, but a good effort in the ITM Cup may force him into Super 15 reckoning.
3. Paul Grant (Otago) - The skipper of the blue and golds needs a big year. Appears to be out of the Highlanders equation unless he can do something special.
