While it may be prudent to dust off the winter woollies, they may not be needed as much as usual this winter.
Niwa National Climate Centre forecasting and media principal scientist Chris Brandolino said temperatures between June and August were likely to be warmer than average across Otago and Southland.
"This owes to an expected lack of southerly quarter winds, warmer than average sea surface temperatures, and a continuation of La Nina for at least part of the season," Mr Brandolino said
"Cold snaps and frosts will occur, such as during mid-June, but their duration and/or frequency may be less than normal."
Mr Brandolino said winter air pressure was forecast to be lower than normal to the west of New Zealand and higher than normal to the east.
"This is expected to be associated with mixed northeasterly and westerly quarter air flow anomalies.
"The Southern Oscillation Index during May was the second-highest May value on record since at least 1876.
"This suggests that La Nina continues to influence global atmospheric patterns."
As for rainfall, he said totals were most likely to be near normal in Southland and inland Otago, and equally likely to be near normal or above normal in coastal Otago.
Across the southern region, seasonal rainfall patterns may be irregular and longer dry spells will be interspersed with heavy rainfall events.
"More frequent low pressure systems in the Tasman Sea may direct plumes of subtropical moisture and humid air toward the country at times, causing heavy rainfall and potential flooding."
Soil moisture levels and river flows were equally likely to be below normal or near normal in Southland and inland Otago, and near normal in coastal Otago.
