A dip in the number of students is part of a cycle which the University of Otago has experienced for decades, the university's director of planning and funding David Thomson says.
He was commenting after the university recently said it faced an "uncertain" financial future with little growth in student numbers expected.
Mr Thomson said the typical enrolment cycle was for two or three-year periods of low growth between 10 and 12-year blocks of sustained growth.
The university was in a "dip" at the moment, with the previous one being in the years between 1998 and 2000. This "dip" had seen equivalent full-time enrolments (EFTS) drop from 19,661 in 2010 to a forecast of 19,370 this year.
"It is this dip, combined with the tight funding environment for both enrolments and research, that is leading us to be cautious around our current financial outlook," Mr Thomson said.
The trend was expected to continue next year when a "soft year for enrolments" characterised by limited domestic student growth and no international growth was expected. Beyond next year the "cycle" would move upwards again, he said.
The decline in student numbers also came amid a push to bring in more "top-calibre entrants", which had been in place since 2006.
"This indicates very clearly that growth in the roll is not our primary focus, and nor has it been since 2006, when the strategic direction to 2012 came into force," he said.
While focusing on quality had resulted in a drop in numbers in the short term, with more students being suspended for failing to pass enough papers and stricter entry rules, it was expected that in future this would boost the university's reputation, attracting more students.
Having higher calibre students would also likely mean more would stay on for postgraduate study, he said.
Another reason demand was down was because of various government measures restricting access to loans and allowances, although these were "not matters peculiar to Otago", he said.
