Prime Minister John Key seems increasingly likely to call an election before the start of the Rugby World Cup in New Zealand next year.
The rush of legislation now being introduced by the Government means an election can be called in the last weekend of August, two weeks out from the start of the cup on September 9.
By releasing the "bad news", such as the emissions trading scheme (ETS) and planned changes to labour laws, now, Mr Key will have 12 months in which the major opposition will likely die down as people start receiving their tax cuts.
He will hope the increase in GST, and the added costs from the ETS, will disappear as the country prepares to host the world cup for the first time since it hosted it in 1987 with Australia, and hopefully win the cup for the first time since that year.
Traditionally, governments bring in unpopular legislation in a non-election year, leaving all the good news for the election campaign.
That good news for Mr Key will include tax cuts, an improving economy, the government accounts moving into surplus some time next year and the 5%-6% hump of inflation quickly disappearing as the one-off effects of rising costs are removed.
Waiting until after the world cup drags the election into late November, and Mr Key runs the risk of the All Blacks losing and voters being distracted by the onslaught of Christmas shopping.
While a winning All Blacks' side would create national euphoria, the risk of losing to South Africa, or France, are probably odds the Prime Minister wishes not to take.
Although an election in the last week of August next year would mean campaigning in winter, late August is close enough to spring-like weather in the North Island for National supporters to get out and vote.
A winter election never suits National when it is in power because many of its supporters always assume the party will win and that someone else will do the voting.
Unions are now preparing to take on the Government over its employment changes, but the chances of the union movement being able to maintain a high-profile campaign a year from now will be limited.
One of the most vocal union leaders, Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union general secretary Andrew Little, will be campaigning in New Plymouth.
And as Labour Party president he will have enough to do without worrying about an industrial campaign.
One of the most compelling arguments for Mr Key to go to the voters before the world cup is that Labour is still likely to be well behind National in all opinion polls.
He will also want to campaign on all the things the Government has done to ensure the smooth running of the cup, conveniently forgetting the work former prime minister Helen Clark did to secure the cup and the debacle over finding a site in Auckland for "party central".
