So it is worth paying attention when he suggests Timy Tyler will beat home Lochan Ora in tomorrow’s $100,000 Winter Cup at Riccarton.
At first thought, predicting last year’s Winter Cup winner will finish ahead of a stablemate who is having his first start in the big time does not seem like much of a stretch.
That is until a look at the final-field market. Lochan Ora was at $6 yesterday afternoon, while Timy Tyler was on the seventh line of betting at $21.
Tyler cannot quite figure out those odds, even if Timy Tyler has been out of the winner’s circle since October last year.
"That’s crazy money. He’s as good as he’s ever been," Tyler said of the defending champion.
"He’s been lugging 60kg around and he’s still been competitive.
"I’ve been telling a few people Timy will beat Lochan Ora home. Even whether it’s last and second-last, I’ve said Timy will beat Lochan Ora in the cup."
Tyler arrived at Riccarton on Monday and was as pleased as anyone to see the rain falling yesterday.
"They’re both good chances. They’re not just making up the field, so I’m quite excited," he said.
"And we had a good bit of rain this morning, so that will suit them. It will definitely go to heavy11, I’m picking."
The Riverton horseman describes Timy Tyler as a "different horse" from the one who prevailed with a sustained run to win last year’s edition of the group 3 1600m race.
"He’s just got so big and strong, and he comes into it at a really good weight [56.5kg], too."
Barrier 9 gives jockey Daniel Bothamley a chance to roll forward and make his presence felt during the running.
"I reckon that’s a perfect barrier, because he seems to go forward and put himself into the race."
Even at the double-figure quote, Tyler is unlikely to have a bet on the 6yr-old.
"To be honest, I probably won’t. I’ll be quite happy to watch, like I did last year when he paid $47."
Tyler’s plan of getting Lochan Ora into the race near the bottom of the weight scale has worked out as he hoped.
The winner of seven of his 17 starts will carry 54.5kg with Kevin Kalychurun on board.
"That has always been the aim to get him in down the bottom, so we’re pretty happy with that," he said.
"I guess out of the two, he would probably prefer a little bit better ground than Timy, because he’s got quite a good turn of foot.
"Whether he can do that in the real heavy track the same, I’m not too sure, but the track isn’t going to worry him."
Tyler could enjoy a profitable day with a big team set to chase the riches. He rates Master Karsten (race 4) as a leading chance.
"He’s still doing a few things wrong, but once the penny drops and he turns into a racehorse ... I’ve always said he’s a better horse than Lochan Ora but time’s going to tell.‘
"And Belle Boy [race 10] is going really well and he loves the mud."
