Solid economic growth amid uncertainty

Whoever is wearing the treasurer's crown next Wednesday should have a decent tale to tell about the economy.

Whether it is Labor's incumbent Wayne Swan, or Liberal treasurer in-waiting Joe Hockey who has the honours of delivering the traditional national accounts media conference on September 1, the news is likely to be upbeat.

As the laborious vote count continues over the next few days in an effort to resolve an increasingly tight contest, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will also be rolling out components of the June quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

"All the figures (so far) suggest the economy is growing pretty close to potential growth," Nomura Research chief economist Stephen Roberts told AAP.

"Unlike many countries overseas, the data we have had since the second (June) quarter are also holding up not too badly."

Potential annual growth is seen at around 3.2 per cent to 3.3 per cent, and even if next week's national accounts fall short of this level, Mr Roberts expects the economy will get there in the September and December quarters.

So far, consumer spending is expected to make a small contribution to GDP, while outstanding components kick off on Wednesday with completed construction work during the three months to end-June.

More crucial to the growth outlook will be Thursday's private capital expenditure (capex) report, which also contains future business investment plans.

Economists expect actual capex spending to have rebounded in the June quarter by around 2.5 per cent, after the surprise 0.2 per cent fall in the previous quarter.

But it is the investment plans that will be heavily scrutinised.

Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe calculates that the latest estimate for business capital spending for 2010/11 would have to be at around $117 billion to keep capex on target for 20 per cent-plus growth over the year.

"A figure of $110 billion or less would represent a significant downgrade to expectations," he said.

The survey for expectations was conducted in July and August, and at a time of heightened worries of a possible "double-dip" recession in the US.

"The expectations might also be dented because the survey was taken during all the discussions around the mining tax," Mr Roberts said.

Even if the "sabre rattling" by resource companies over the mining tax proves to be only a temporary pullback in investment, the coalition will no doubt jump on such an outcome, having pledged to scrap the tax because it will hit Australia's currently most successful industry.

One report that will provide a sizeable boost to growth will be the June quarter balance of payments report due next Tuesday, given the massive turnaround in the monthly trade data.

This has seen the trade position switch from a steady run of deficits to sizable surpluses in a matter of months - and a record $3.5 billion in June - as a sharp rise in coal and iron ore price contracts made their mark.

One thing is clear, even against this solid growth backdrop - the Reserve Bank won't be pushing the button on another interest rate rise anytime soon while political uncertainty lingers on.

 

Add a Comment