The "no confidence" vote in local body elections could be as high as 60% by the end of this week. That’s essentially what it is when only 40% of the public choose to vote, which is what is happening at the moment. In fact, voter turnout is trending lower, meaning New Zealand could be headed for a record low voter turnout (and hence a record no confidence vote in politicians).
The reality is clear: the vast majority of the public are not inspired by what’s on offer from candidates across the country and voters aren’t convinced that voting in local elections really matters.
Voter turnout was supposed to increase in 2022
This year’s extremely low voter turnout is occurring despite circumstances that should be driving increased public involvement.
Firstly, there are a large number of very competitive mayoral elections taking place where the likely outcome is far from decided. In Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Dunedin and Invercargill, for instance, it’s not clear who will win, and a number of new mayors are likely to be elected.
This situation normally drives up turnout.
In addition, there are a number of factors that many commentators and authorities believed would drive up participation:
- The new Maori wards in many elections were supposed to provide for better representation of a historically under-represented demographic.
- There is increased media coverage of local elections and, in particular, a plethora of voices explaining the need for people to vote.
- The Three Waters reforms have provided a contentious public issue for voters to vote for or against as candidates take a pro or anti Three Waters stance.
- A much more demographically diverse range of candidates — women, Maori, young people and so forth — standing was said to help boost turnout among sections of the public put off by so-called "pale, stale and male" incumbents.
- Local government authorities have produced huge publicity and advertising campaigns — normally incorporating te reo Maori and an emphasis on diversity — to get people enthused about democracy.
None of these factors appear to have had a significant impact in lifting voting so far. Perhaps some of these dynamics have actually had a counterintuitively negative impact.
Could it be that the low voter turnout reflects contentment?
Of course, there are plenty of explanations for the public choosing not to vote. Some politicians and commentators have been attempting to put a more positive spin on the declining voter turnout. Much of this looks like wishful thinking. They say the declining voter turnout simply reflects public satisfaction with the politicians and their local authorities. Voters are content to just let the politicians continue doing their good work without the scrutiny and evaluation of voting.
But there is absolutely no evidence to support the view that the low voter turnout reflects contentment. In fact, there is strong evidence throughout the country that the public’s unhappiness with councils has reached an all-time high.
Surveys carried out by local authorities show that dissatisfaction with individual councils is very strong this year. For example, in Wellington, when the public were asked this year about satisfaction with council decision-making, the number of those who were "satisfied" dropped to a new low of only 12%, while those who said they were "dissatisfied" jumped to 52%. Similarly, those who believed that the council makes decisions that were in the best interests of the city had plummeted from 50% to just 17% this year.
It seems that throughout the country there is a similar level of anger and disenchantment with local politicians, which should dispel any rosy idea that lower voter turnout is in some way positive.
Those pushing the "contentment theory" of low voter turnout also have to grapple with the fact that non-voters are disproportionately made up of the poor and marginalised of society. Evidence shows it’s the wealthier demographics that vote in much larger numbers than others.
For example, suburb comparisons in the 2019 Rotorua Lakes Council elections showed that the higher turnouts were from residents from wealthier housing locations, and vice versa.
Overall in Rotorua the turnout was 45%. But for the affluent suburbs the turnout rates were much higher, while for the lower socio-economic areas the voting rates were about a third of this.
For example, in Rotorua’s flash suburb of Springfield, 59% voted, in leafy Lynmore it was 57%, and wealthy Kaharoa had a turnout rate of 56%.
However, the poorer suburbs had abysmal turnout rates. In disadvantaged Western Heights it was only 27%, and in the poorest area of Fordlands voter turnout was an incredible 18%.
This pattern was borne out of a 2015 Auckland Council study that showed significant variation in voter turnout according to socioeconomic status.
It goes to show just how much participation in elections is a function of socioeconomics.
And so, a discussion of voter turnout must involve an awareness that elections in New Zealand are primarily determined by wealth.
Local government isn’t working
It seems that local government isn’t working for most people. And this is especially the case for the poor. Increasingly there is a feeling that local government — much like central government — has become dysfunctional and captured by vested interests and elites.
All around the world voter turnout has generally been on the decline over the last few decades, driven by waning trust in authorities and politics. And this is evident in the rise of populist nationalism and the increased peddling of conspiracy theories.
A 17% turnout among poorer communities speaks to something rotten in our democratic processes. Fixing this won’t involve superficial and mechanical changes to voting systems or just more public education. A much bigger examination of the failings of our political system is necessary, and this needs to include looking at wider societal problems.
Without big change, our elections will decline further in legitimacy. As today’s New Zealand Herald points out, the Prime Minister is being "asked this week to speculate on how low the turnout threshold should be for local elections to be considered valid". She won’t answer this. But someone is going to have to engage very quickly.
What is clear is that blaming voters for being uninspired by the candidates and the system of local government is not the answer. The public — and especially poorer New Zealanders — will just keep essentially voting "no confidence" in larger and larger numbers until it’s impossible for this message to be ignored or misunderstood.
- Dr Bryce Edwards is Political Analyst in Residence at Victoria University of Wellington. He is the director of the Democracy Project.
