National is poised to lead a centre-right government after tomorrow's election, with latest polls showing Labour's bid for a fourth term slipping away.
NZPA's rolling poll, an average of the last six surveys, gives National, ACT and United Future 64 seats.
The most Labour could muster with the Greens, the Progressive Party and the Maori party is 58 -- a clear six seat majority for the centre-right in a Parliament of 122 MPs.
But despite the poor results for Labour in two polls published today -- Fairfax Media scores the main parties 49 percent, 31 percent and the New Zealand Herald 47.9 percent, 36.4 percent -- party leader Helen Clark still believes she can pull of a remarkable turn around victory for the centre-left.
"We're certainly picking up a lot of strong support for Labour out there on the ground, and the feeling that this isn't the time to jump into the unknown," Miss Clark said this morning.
"I think people are aware there's a pretty serious international crisis out there and that Labour can be counted on to protect jobs and vulnerable people." Miss Clark shrugged off the latest polls.
"That's what most of them said last time, there's nothing new about that," she said.
National's leader, John Key, said the survey results were "fantastic" but he wasn't taking anything for granted.
"Polls are one thing, election night results can be a very different thing," he said.
An important feature of the polls over the last two weeks has been the surge in support for the Greens, and to a slightly lesser degree for right-wing ACT.
The Greens have taken votes off Labour and are up to 8.6 percent in the rolling poll.
That would give them 11 seats in the new Parliament compared with six they held in the last one.
ACT is polling at 2.8 percent which would give it four seats. It had two in the last Parliament.
If ACT gains nearly 3 percent tomorrow night, former Labour Party finance minister Sir Roger Douglas will be back in Parliament.
The rolling poll puts New Zealand First on 3.4 percent support -- no seats, because without holding an electorate it must reach the 5 percent threshold.
Party leader Winston Peters is contesting Tauranga but he is trailing National's Simon Bridges.
Ron Mark is fighting for Rimutaka, a safe Labour seat.
But NZ First is still a dangerous wild card.
If Mr Peters could pull off what would be a last-minute miracle and get his party over 5 percent it would have six seats, and the entire landscape would change.
National has shunned Mr Peters and won't have anything to do with him post-election.
He would have to go with Labour, and National's majority would evaporate.
The Maori Party is expected to hold the four seats it already has but its candidates are trailing Labour MPs in the other three Maori seats.
It has not decided which of the main parties it will support after the election, but on current polling it will not be in the "kingmaker" position of holding the balance of power because National would not need it.
Another feature of the recent polls is that voters do not seem interested in the centre parties, NZ First and United Future, or Jim Anderton's left-wing Progressive Party.
United Future leader Peter Dunne will hold his Ohariu seat and join National but his party is only rating 0.5 percent and it will not have any more MPs.
The Progressive Party is barely registering in the polls and Mr Anderton will again be its only MP because of his grip on the Wigram seat.
