The Labour Party 2011 election campaign was strategically inept, which is likely to contribute to one its worst defeats when the polls close tomorrow.
Unless Labour can get every single supporter out to vote tomorrow, and the party will try, it has the potential to remain in the wilderness for at least another six years.
Mistakes were compounded on throughout the shortened campaign period and long-serving Labour MP and campaign manager Trevor Mallard might have hard questions to answer on Tuesday if the caucus meets, as it generally does.
Mr Mallard, who spent most of his time on social networks during the campaign, was nowhere to be seen. In fact, first-term MP Grant Robertson was more active on the campaign trail.
Labour made a series of mistakes, and senior MPs should have known better.
First, the party did not have a campaign launch except a policy launch in leader Phil Goff's office. Labour supporters had no focal point at which to gather and feel energised about the next four weeks. The proof of that came last Sunday when the party held a rally in Auckland, bussing in supporters who gave Mr Goff new energy and lifted his performance in the Monday night TV3 leaders debate.
Secondly, the campaign strategists decided to not include Mr Goff's face on any election hoardings - except in his own electorate.
After saying the party was focused on policies not personalities, the media mainly chased the leaders, meaning Mr Goff turned up on television and on front pages each day.
Thirdly, the party had "Vote whomever" on its hoardings but not "party vote Labour". The black strips saying "two ticks Labour" only appeared this week, hastily stapled on to candidate hoardings.
Fourthly, Labour MPs who fancy their chances as future leaders posed for media photos and allowed interviews with themselves to appear in a national magazine and in New Zealand's largest newspaper when Mr Goff was trying to win the election.
Did no-one think that would undermine both the party and Mr Goff?
During the Otago Daily Times' election tour, no voter had a bad word to say about Mr Goff. He was seen as a decent man, a true Labour man and one working hard for the party - but not apparently by his senior MPs.
Fifthly, Labour allowed Mr Goff to speak in front of small audiences. Strategists did not have the foresight to stack the audience in front of the television cameras. Ross Robertson, a senior Labour MP, was overheard on Sunday berating Grey Power for not getting its act together and providing a larger crowd last week. That MP, who will be easily re-elected in his Manukau East electorate, also moaned about not enough Labour supporters turning up to hear their leader.
The most serious ambushing of Mr Goff came when he was announcing policies at The Press leaders debate, only for him to be taunted by Prime Minister John Key calling out: "Show me the money". The costs of those policies were released two days later, too late for Mr Goff. Then, both finance spokesman David Cunliffe and associate finance spokesman David Parker were quoted as saying Mr Goff had the figures but must have been caught up in the moment of the debate.
Throughout all of this, Mr Goff has maintained his dignity and has lifted in the preferred prime minister polls. That could give him, if he wishes, the chance to stare down any challenge for his job next week.
However, Mr Goff was not without fault during the campaign. By not doing his homework on the cost of Labour's policies, he allowed Prime Minister Mr Key to taunt him on bungling figures. Even on the last leaders debate on Wednesday, Mr Key managed to get the one-liner in about Mr Goff struggling with numbers.
Mr Goff put his and the party's fate in attacking National's asset sale policy when he would have been better concentrating on the things that have attracted Labour support in the past - helping people out of poverty.
That policy was taken over by the Green Party and, particularly in Auckland, the Mana Party.
In defeat, Labour has the potential to almost self-destruct in a blame game. With an expected smaller caucus, any leadership challenge will cause disintegration into factions that will take a long time to heal.
Labour's best chance of stability lies with the decisions Mr Goff will make over the next few days.
